Werfalli Mahmoud, Musekiwa Alfred, Engel Mark E, Ross Ian, Kengne Andre P, Levitt Naomi S
Chronic Disease Initiative for Africa (CDIA), Cape Town, South Africa Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa Division of Diabetic Medicine and Endocrinology, Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Centre for Evidence Based Health Care, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa.
BMJ Open. 2014 Jun 17;4(6):e004747. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2013-004747.
The number of people with diabetes in Africa is projected to increase substantially in the next two decades, due to factors including rapid urbanisation, adoption of unhealthy diets and exercise patterns and the ageing of the population. There are currently uncertainties regarding the incidence, prevalence and management patterns of diabetes in older people across the diversity of African countries. We wish to perform a systematic review to determine the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Africa in the older individual, over the age of 55 years, reported in studies from 2000 to 2013.
A comprehensive literature search among a number of databases will be undertaken, using an African search filter to identify diabetes prevalence studies that were published from 2000 to 2013. Full copies of articles identified by the search, and considered to meet the inclusion criteria, will be obtained for data extraction and synthesis. Statistical analysis of the primary measures, fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and oral glucose tolerance test will include two steps: (1) identification of data sources and documenting estimates and (2) application of the random-effects meta-analysis model to aggregate prevalence estimates and account for between study variability in calculating the overall pooled estimates and 95% CI for diabetes prevalence. Heterogeneity will be evaluated using the I(2) statistic to determine the extent of variation in effect estimates that is due to heterogeneity rather than chance. This systematic review will be reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA).
Ethics is not required for this study, given that this is a protocol for a systematic review, which utilises published data. The findings of this study will be widely disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations.
由于快速城市化、采用不健康饮食和运动模式以及人口老龄化等因素，预计未来二十年非洲糖尿病患者人数将大幅增加。目前，在非洲各国不同人群中，老年人糖尿病的发病率、患病率及管理模式尚存在不确定性。我们希望进行一项系统评价，以确定2000年至2013年期间研究报道的非洲55岁以上老年人2型糖尿病的患病率。
将在多个数据库中进行全面的文献检索，使用非洲检索过滤器来识别2000年至2013年发表的糖尿病患病率研究。将获取检索到的、被认为符合纳入标准的文章全文，用于数据提取和综合分析。对主要指标空腹血糖（FPG）和口服葡萄糖耐量试验的统计分析将包括两个步骤：（1）确定数据来源并记录估计值；（2）应用随机效应荟萃分析模型汇总患病率估计值，并在计算糖尿病患病率的总体合并估计值和95%置信区间时考虑研究间的变异性。将使用I²统计量评估异质性，以确定效应估计值变异中由异质性而非机遇导致的程度。本系统评价将根据系统评价和荟萃分析的首选报告项目（PRISMA）进行报告。
鉴于本研究是一项利用已发表数据的系统评价方案，因此无需伦理审查。本研究结果将通过同行评审出版物和会议报告广泛传播。
