Zhang Zhijie, Chen Dongmei, Chen Yue, Wang Bo, Hu Yi, Gao Jie, Sun Liqian, Li Rui, Xiong Chenglong
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
Laboratory of Geographic Information and Spatial Analysis, Department of Geography, Faculty of Arts and Science, Queen's University, 99 University Avenue, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6, Canada.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2014 Jun 19;11(6):6388-99. doi: 10.3390/ijerph110606388.
The emergence and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A virus subtype H5N1 in Asia, Europe and Africa has had an enormously socioeconomic impact and presents an important threat to human health because of its efficient animal-to-human transmission. Many factors contribute to the occurrence and transmission of HPAI H5N1 virus, but the role of environmental temperature remains poorly understood. Based on an approach of integrating a Bayesian Cox proportional hazards model and a Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) model, we examined the specific impact of environmental temperature on HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry around the globe during the period from 1 December 2003 to 31 December 2009. The results showed that higher environmental temperature was a significant risk factor for earlier occurrence of HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry, especially for a temperature of 25 °C. Its impact varied with epidemic waves (EWs), and the magnitude of the impact tended to increase over EWs.
高致病性禽流感（HPAI）A 病毒 H5N1 亚型在亚洲、欧洲和非洲的出现与传播已产生了巨大的社会经济影响，并因其高效的动物传人传播而对人类健康构成重大威胁。许多因素促成了 HPAI H5N1 病毒的发生与传播，但环境温度的作用仍知之甚少。基于整合贝叶斯Cox 比例风险模型与贝萨格-约克-莫利（BYM）模型的方法，我们研究了 2003 年 12 月 1 日至 2009 年 12 月 31 日期间环境温度对全球家禽中 HPAI H5N1 疫情爆发的具体影响。结果表明，较高的环境温度是家禽中 HPAI H5N1 疫情较早发生的一个重要风险因素，尤其是在 25℃时。其影响随疫情波次（EWs）而变化，且影响程度往往随疫情波次增加。
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