Sariaslan Amir, Larsson Henrik, D'Onofrio Brian, Långström Niklas, Lichtenstein Paul
Amir Sariaslan, MSc, Henrik Larsson, PhD, Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; Brian D'Onofrio, PhD, Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Niklas Långström, MD, PhD, Paul Lichtenstein, PhD, Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Br J Psychiatry. 2014 Oct;205(4):286-90. doi: 10.1192/bjp.bp.113.136200. Epub 2014 Aug 21.
Low socioeconomic status in childhood is a well-known predictor of subsequent criminal and substance misuse behaviours but the causal mechanisms are questioned. Aims To investigate whether childhood family income predicts subsequent violent criminality and substance misuse and whether the associations are in turn explained by unobserved familial risk factors.
Nationwide Swedish quasi-experimental, family-based study following cohorts born 1989-1993 (n(total) = 526 167, n(cousins) = 262 267, n(siblings) = 216 424) between the ages of 15 and 21 years.
Children of parents in the lowest income quintile experienced a seven-fold increased hazard rate (HR) of being convicted of violent criminality compared with peers in the highest quintile (HR = 6.78, 95% CI 6.23-7.38). This association was entirely accounted for by unobserved familial risk factors (HR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.44-2.03). Similar pattern of effects was found for substance misuse.
There were no associations between childhood family income and subsequent violent criminality and substance misuse once we had adjusted for unobserved familial risk factors.
童年时期社会经济地位低下是后续犯罪和药物滥用行为的一个众所周知的预测因素，但因果机制受到质疑。目的：调查童年家庭收入是否能预测后续的暴力犯罪和药物滥用，以及这些关联是否反过来由未观察到的家庭风险因素所解释。
瑞典全国性的基于家庭的准实验研究，追踪1989 - 1993年出生的队列（总人数n = 526167，表亲n = 262267，兄弟姐妹n = 216424）在15至21岁之间的情况。
收入最低五分位数的父母的孩子被判定暴力犯罪的风险率（HR）比最高五分位数的同龄人高出7倍（HR = 6.78，95%可信区间6.23 - 7.38）。这种关联完全由未观察到的家庭风险因素所解释（HR = 0.95，95%可信区间0.44 - 2.03）。在药物滥用方面也发现了类似的效应模式。
一旦我们对未观察到的家庭风险因素进行调整，童年家庭收入与后续暴力犯罪和药物滥用之间就没有关联了。
