Arnold Arboretum, Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Organismic & Evolutionary Biology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA; Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Ecol Lett. 2014 Nov;17(11):1365-79. doi: 10.1111/ele.12353. Epub 2014 Sep 8.
Two fundamental axes - space and time - shape ecological systems. Over the last 30 years spatial ecology has developed as an integrative, multidisciplinary science that has improved our understanding of the ecological consequences of habitat fragmentation and loss. We argue that accelerating climate change - the effective manipulation of time by humans - has generated a current need to build an equivalent framework for temporal ecology. Climate change has at once pressed ecologists to understand and predict ecological dynamics in non-stationary environments, while also challenged fundamental assumptions of many concepts, models and approaches. However, similarities between space and time, especially related issues of scaling, provide an outline for improving ecological models and forecasting of temporal dynamics, while the unique attributes of time, particularly its emphasis on events and its singular direction, highlight where new approaches are needed. We emphasise how a renewed, interdisciplinary focus on time would coalesce related concepts, help develop new theories and methods and guide further data collection. The next challenge will be to unite predictive frameworks from spatial and temporal ecology to build robust forecasts of when and where environmental change will pose the largest threats to species and ecosystems, as well as identifying the best opportunities for conservation.
两个基本的轴——空间和时间——塑造了生态系统。在过去的 30 年里,空间生态学已经发展成为一门综合性的多学科科学,提高了我们对生境破碎化和丧失的生态后果的理解。我们认为,加速的气候变化——人类对时间的有效操纵——已经产生了当前构建时间生态学等效框架的需求。气候变化迫使生态学家去理解和预测非稳定环境中的生态动态,同时也挑战了许多概念、模型和方法的基本假设。然而,空间和时间之间存在相似性,尤其是与尺度相关的问题,为改进生态模型和预测时间动态提供了一个框架,而时间的独特属性,特别是其对事件的强调和单一的方向,突出了需要新方法的地方。我们强调了如何通过重新关注时间的跨学科方法来整合相关概念,帮助发展新的理论和方法,并指导进一步的数据收集。下一个挑战将是整合空间和时间生态学的预测框架,以建立关于何时何地环境变化将对物种和生态系统构成最大威胁的稳健预测,并确定保护的最佳机会。