Halloran M E, Struchiner C J, Spielman A
Math Biosci. 1989 May;94(1):115-49. doi: 10.1016/0025-5564(89)90074-6.
Population effects of malaria vaccination programs will depend on the stage specificity of the vaccine, its duration of effectiveness, whether it is responsive to natural boosting, the proportion vaccinated, and the preexisting endemic conditions. This paper develops models of infection-blocking (sporozoite), disease-modifying (merozoite), and transmission-blocking (gametic) vaccines. It explores numerically their different effects on prevalence of infection and disease when utilized in different types of immunization programs at various levels of coverage. Simulations show that possible qualitative consequences of malaria vaccination programs include decreased prevalence of infection and disease and decreased prevalence of infection without a corresponding decrease in prevalence of disease. Epidemics, either one-time or cyclical, could occur. These effects could be accompanied by changes in the age distribution of disease. Finally, vaccination could contribute to elimination of transmission. The duration of effectiveness of the malaria vaccine relative to the duration of natural immunity could have important consequences for the unvaccinated. The problem of predicting a threshold for elimination of transmission is discussed.
疟疾疫苗接种计划对人群的影响将取决于疫苗的阶段特异性、有效性持续时间、是否对自然增强有反应、接种比例以及现有的流行情况。本文建立了感染阻断（子孢子）、疾病改善（裂殖子）和传播阻断（配子）疫苗的模型。它通过数值模拟探讨了在不同覆盖率的不同类型免疫计划中使用这些疫苗时，它们对感染率和疾病发生率的不同影响。模拟结果表明，疟疾疫苗接种计划可能产生的定性后果包括感染率和疾病发生率降低，以及感染率降低而疾病发生率没有相应降低。可能会发生一次性或周期性的疫情。这些影响可能伴随着疾病年龄分布的变化。最后，疫苗接种有助于消除传播。疟疾疫苗有效性的持续时间相对于自然免疫的持续时间可能对未接种疫苗的人产生重要影响。文中讨论了预测消除传播阈值的问题。
