Angelidou E, Kostoulas P, Leontides L
Laboratory of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Animal Health Economics, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Trikalon 224, GR-43100 Karditsa, Greece.
Laboratory of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Animal Health Economics, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Trikalon 224, GR-43100 Karditsa, Greece.
Prev Vet Med. 2014 Nov 1;117(1):233-41. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2014.09.002. Epub 2014 Sep 16.
In this cross-sectional study we identified flock-level risk factors for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection, in Greek dairy goat flocks. We collected 1599 milk samples from does that were at the last stage of lactation in 58 randomly selected dairy goat flocks, during May to September 2012. The collected samples were tested with a commercial milk ELISA (IdexxPourquier, Montpellier, France) and the results were interpreted at a cut-off that optimized the accuracy of the diagnostic process. For the analysis of the data we used Bayesian models that adjusted for the imperfect Se and Sp of the milk-ELISA. Flock was included as a random effect. Does in flocks that used common water troughs and communal grazing grounds had 4.6 [95% credible interval (CI): 1.5; 17.4] times higher odds of being MAP-infected compared to does in flocks that had no contact with other flocks. Does of flocks supplied with surface water from either streams or shallow wells had 3.7 (1.4; 10.4) times higher odds of being infected compared to those in flocks watered by underground and piped water sources. When kids were spending equal to or more than 10h per day with their dams they had 2.6 (1.1; 6.4) times higher odds of being MAP infected compared to kids that were separated from their dams for less than 10h per day. Finally, does in flocks that continuously used the same anti-parasitic compound had 2.2 (1.0; 4.6) times higher odds of MAP infection compared to those in flocks alternating anti-parasitic compounds. These results should be considered in the development of a nationwide future control program fοr caprine paratuberculosis in Greece.
在这项横断面研究中，我们确定了希腊奶山羊群中禽分枝杆菌副结核亚种（MAP）感染的群体水平风险因素。2012年5月至9月期间，我们从58个随机选择的奶山羊群中处于泌乳后期的母羊采集了1599份乳样。采集的样本用商用牛奶ELISA（法国蒙彼利埃的Idexx Pourquier）进行检测，结果根据优化诊断过程准确性的临界值进行判读。对于数据分析，我们使用了贝叶斯模型，该模型针对牛奶ELISA不完善的灵敏度（Se）和特异度（Sp）进行了调整。群体作为随机效应纳入分析。与没有与其他群体接触的群体中的母羊相比，使用公共水槽和公共牧场的群体中的母羊感染MAP的几率高4.6倍[95%可信区间（CI）：1.5；17.4]。与使用地下水源和管道水源供水的群体中的母羊相比，使用溪流或浅井水作为地表水的群体中的母羊感染几率高3.7倍（1.4；10.4）。当羔羊每天与母羊相处时间等于或超过10小时时，与每天与母羊分离少于10小时的羔羊相比，其感染MAP的几率高2.6倍（1.1；6.4）。最后，与交替使用抗寄生虫化合物的群体中的母羊相比，持续使用相同抗寄生虫化合物的群体中的母羊感染MAP的几率高2.2倍（1.0；4.6）。在制定希腊未来全国性的山羊副结核病防控计划时应考虑这些结果。
