Department of Renewable Resources, Faculty of Agricultural, Life, and Environmental Sciences, University of Alberta, 751 General Services Building, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2H1, Canada.
Glob Chang Biol. 2015 Feb;21(2):997-1004. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12736. Epub 2014 Oct 14.
The velocity of climate change is an elegant analytical concept that can be used to evaluate the exposure of organisms to climate change. In essence, one divides the rate of climate change by the rate of spatial climate variability to obtain a speed at which species must migrate over the surface of the earth to maintain constant climate conditions. However, to apply the algorithm for conservation and management purposes, additional information is needed to improve realism at local scales. For example, destination information is needed to ensure that vectors describing speed and direction of required migration do not point toward a climatic cul-de-sac by pointing beyond mountain tops. Here, we present an analytical approach that conforms to standard velocity algorithms if climate equivalents are nearby. Otherwise, the algorithm extends the search for climate refugia, which can be expanded to search for multivariate climate matches. With source and destination information available, forward and backward velocities can be calculated allowing useful inferences about conservation of species (present-to-future velocities) and management of species populations (future-to-present velocities).
气候变化的速度是一个优雅的分析概念，可用于评估生物体对气候变化的暴露程度。从本质上讲，人们可以通过将气候变化的速度除以空间气候变化的速度来获得物种必须在地球表面迁移的速度，以保持恒定的气候条件。但是，为了将算法应用于保护和管理目的，需要额外的信息来提高局部尺度的现实性。例如，需要目的地信息以确保描述所需迁移速度和方向的向量不会指向气候死胡同，因为这些向量指向山顶之外。在这里，我们提出了一种分析方法，如果气候等效物在附近，则该方法符合标准速度算法。否则，该算法会扩展对气候避难所的搜索，也可以扩展到对多变量气候匹配的搜索。有了源和目的地的信息，就可以计算前进和后退的速度，从而可以对物种的保护（现在到未来的速度）和物种种群的管理（未来到现在的速度）进行有用的推断。
