Xu Gang, Sui Xuemei, Liu Shiwei, Liu Jie, Liu Junxiu, Li Yichong, Huang Shouqing, Wang Zhengzhen, Blair Steven N
Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Basic Medicine, Jiangxi University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Nanchang, Jiangxi, China.
Department of Exercise Science, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2014 Oct 14;9(10):e109826. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0109826. eCollection 2014.
Physical inactivity remains an under-researched field in terms of studying burden of disease at provincial level, and no studies have examined the effects of inactivity on life expectancy (LE) in China. The purpose of this study was to estimate mortality risk and LE effects associated with insufficient levels of physical activity in Jiangxi province.
METHODS/FINDINGS: Prevalence of risk factors and mortality counts were extracted from Chronic Diseases and Risk Factors Surveillance Survey (CDRFSS) and Disease Surveillance Points system (DSP), respectively. Insufficient physical activity (IPA) was defined as less than 150 minutes of moderate-intensity physical activity or 60 minutes of vigorous-intensity physical activity per week, accumulated across work, home, transport and discretionary domains. Population-attributable fractions (PAF) were used to calculate the mortality attributable to risk factors, and life table methods were used to estimate the LE gains and LE shifts. Monte Carlo simulation techniques were used for uncertainty analysis. Overall, 5 885 (95% uncertainly interval (UI), 5 047-6 506) and 8 578 (95% UI, 8 227-9 789) deaths in Jiangxi province were attributable to IPA in 2007 and 2010, respectively. The LE gains for elimination of attributable deaths were 0.68 (95% UI, 0.61-076) in 2007, and increased to 0.91 (95% UI, 0.81-1.10) in 2010. If the prevalence of IPA in 2010 had been decreased by 50% or 30%, 3 678 (95% UI, 3 220-4 229) or 2 090 (95% UI, 1 771-2 533) deaths would be avoided, and 0.40 (95% UI, 0.34-0.53) or 0.23 (95% UI, 0.16-0.31) years of LE gained, respectively.
Adults in Jiangxi province of China have a high and increasing prevalence of IPA. Due to the deaths and potential LE gains associated with IPA, there is an urgent need to promote physical activity, one of the most modifiable risk factors, within China's health care reform agenda.
在省级层面研究疾病负担方面，身体活动不足仍是一个研究较少的领域，在中国尚无研究探讨身体活动不足对预期寿命（LE）的影响。本研究旨在评估江西省身体活动水平不足所带来的死亡风险及对预期寿命的影响。
方法/研究结果：分别从慢性病与危险因素监测调查（CDRFSS）和疾病监测点系统（DSP）中提取危险因素患病率和死亡计数。身体活动不足（IPA）定义为每周中等强度身体活动少于150分钟或高强度身体活动少于60分钟，涵盖工作、家庭、交通及休闲等方面。人群归因分数（PAF）用于计算危险因素所致的死亡数，生命表法用于估计预期寿命的增加和预期寿命的变化。采用蒙特卡洛模拟技术进行不确定性分析。总体而言，2007年和2010年江西省分别有5885例（95%不确定区间（UI），5047 - 6506）和8578例（95% UI，8227 - 9789）死亡归因于身体活动不足。2007年消除归因死亡所致的预期寿命增加为0.68（95% UI，0.61 - 0.76），2010年增至0.91（95% UI，0.81 - 1.10）。如果2010年身体活动不足的患病率降低50%或30%，将分别避免3678例（95% UI，3220 - 4229）或2090例（95% UI，1771 - 2533）死亡，预期寿命分别增加0.40（95% UI，0.34 - 0.53）或0.23（95% UI，0.16 - 0.31）年。
中国江西省成年人身体活动不足的患病率高且呈上升趋势。鉴于身体活动不足所致的死亡及预期寿命的潜在增加，在中国医疗改革议程中，迫切需要推广身体活动，这是最可改变的危险因素之一。
