Bodemer Nicolai, Hanoch Yaniv, Katsikopoulos Konstantinos V
Harding Center for Risk Literacy, Berlin, Germany,
Intern Emerg Med. 2015 Mar;10(2):195-203. doi: 10.1007/s11739-014-1143-y. Epub 2014 Oct 28.
Medical decision-making is a complex process that often takes place during uncertainty, that is, when knowledge, time, and resources are limited. How can we ensure good decisions? We present research on heuristics-simple rules of thumb-and discuss how medical decision-making can benefit from these tools. We challenge the common view that heuristics are only second-best solutions by showing that they can be more accurate, faster, and easier to apply in comparison to more complex strategies. Using the example of fast-and-frugal decision trees, we illustrate how heuristics can be studied and implemented in the medical context. Finally, we suggest how a heuristic-friendly culture supports the study and application of heuristics as complementary strategies to existing decision rules.
医学决策是一个复杂的过程,通常在存在不确定性的情况下进行,也就是说,当知识、时间和资源有限时。我们如何确保做出好的决策?我们展示了关于启发法(简单的经验法则)的研究,并讨论医学决策如何从这些工具中受益。我们通过表明与更复杂的策略相比,启发法可以更准确、更快且更易于应用,来挑战那种认为启发法只是次优解决方案的普遍观点。以快速节俭决策树为例,我们说明了如何在医学背景下研究和实施启发法。最后,我们提出一种有利于启发法的文化如何支持将启发法作为现有决策规则的补充策略进行研究和应用。