Fraser P, Chilvers C, Day M, Goldblatt P
Epidemiological Monitoring Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK.
Br J Ind Med. 1989 Jan;46(1):38-42. doi: 10.1136/oem.46.1.38.
The results of a further follow up of two cohorts of men identified as manufacturers of fertilisers in the 1961 and 1971 censuses of England and Wales are reported. Both cohorts have now been followed up until 1985 through the National Health Service Central Register. In the 1961 cohort the previous findings are replicated--low mortality from all causes, all cancers, and all circulatory diseases, and no evidence of dose response relation nor excess mortality from cancer at any site. In the 1971 cohort there remain more deaths from cancer than expected but none of the observed deaths from individual cancers differs significantly from expectation by comparison with national mortality rates or rates for other employed men. Evidence of an association between cancer mortality and frequency of exposure to nitrate containing dust is strengthened in the reanalysis of the 1971 cohort after longer follow up, but a negative trend, significant for digestive organ cancers, is observed in the analysis by product type in which manufacturers of straight nitrogen and compound fertilisers might have been expected to be most at risk. Failure to find specifically any excess mortality from gastric cancer and the contradictory dose response relations, weigh against the notion that the nonsignificant excesses of cancers in the 1971 cohort are related to nitrate exposure.
本文报告了对在1961年和1971年英格兰及威尔士人口普查中被认定为肥料制造商的两组男性人群的进一步随访结果。两组人群均通过国家卫生服务中央登记处随访至1985年。在1961年的队列中,先前的研究结果得到了重复——所有原因、所有癌症和所有循环系统疾病的死亡率都很低,并且没有剂量反应关系的证据,也没有任何部位癌症的超额死亡率。在1971年的队列中,癌症死亡人数仍高于预期,但与全国死亡率或其他在职男性的死亡率相比,观察到的个别癌症死亡人数与预期并无显著差异。在对1971年队列进行更长时间的随访后重新分析时,癌症死亡率与接触含硝酸盐粉尘频率之间的关联证据得到了加强,但在按产品类型进行的分析中观察到了一种负趋势,这在消化器官癌症中具有显著性,而在这种分析中,单纯氮肥和复合肥料制造商可能被认为风险最高。未能特别发现胃癌有任何超额死亡率以及相互矛盾的剂量反应关系,这与1971年队列中癌症的非显著性超额与硝酸盐暴露有关这一观点相悖。