Winter A, Vohmann C, Wawroschek F, Kieschke J
Universitätsklinik für Urologie, Klinikum Oldenburg, Fakultät für Medizin und Gesundheitswisenschaften, Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg, Rahel-Straus-Straße 10, 26133, Oldenburg, Deutschland,
Urologe A. 2015 Sep;54(9):1261-8. doi: 10.1007/s00120-014-3698-7.
In Germany a considerable increase in the number of urological cancers is expected due to demographic change. Small-scale analyses are important for directed planning of uro-oncological health care due to significant regional variability in the demographic development. In this study the number of new urological cancer cases was extrapolated on the county level for Lower Saxony.
The incidence rates for penile (C60), prostate (C61), testis (C62), kidney (C64), renal pelvis/ureter (C65-66) and bladder cancer (C67, D09.0, D41.4) were extrapolated for counties and urban communes from 2010 to 2020 and to 2030 based on the regional population forecast of the State Office for Statistics of Lower Saxony (2009-2031) and gender- and 5-year age-specific incidence rates for Lower Saxony (averaged for 2006-2010).
From 2010 (n=12.668) to 2020 and 2030, increases of 15% (n = 14.519; men: 15%, women: 10%) and 28% (n=16.201; men: 29%, women: 20%) are expected in urological cancers for Lower Saxony. The greatest rise is predicted for prostate cancer (2030: 31%, n = 9.732; C67 + D09.0 + D41.4: 30%; C60: 28%; C65-66: 27%; C64: 19%). Only testicular carcinomas are expected to decrease (-13%). The increase varies considerably between regions. In the counties the rates range from 7% (2030; C61: 10%) in Osterode am Harz to 63% in Vechta (C61: 70%). In the urban communes the greatest increase is predicted for Oldenburg (total: 40%; C61: 45%) and the lowest increase for Wolfsburg (total: 3%; C61: 3%).
Demographic change is expected to lead to a sharp increase in urological cancers. In health care planning (e.g. specialist care) regionally very heterogeneous developments and in particular high growth and close to home care of more and more older and less mobile cancer sufferers, respectively, must be considered for rural areas.
在德国，由于人口结构变化，预计泌尿系统癌症的数量将大幅增加。由于人口发展存在显著的区域差异，小规模分析对于泌尿外科医疗保健的定向规划很重要。在本研究中，对下萨克森州县级层面的泌尿系统癌症新发病例数进行了推断。
根据下萨克森州统计局（2009 - 2031年）的区域人口预测以及下萨克森州的性别和5岁年龄组特异性发病率（2006 - 2010年平均值），推断2010年至2020年以及至2030年各县和城市社区阴茎癌（C60）、前列腺癌（C61）、睾丸癌（C62）、肾癌（C64）、肾盂/输尿管癌（C65 - 66）和膀胱癌（C67、D09.0、D41.4）的发病率。
下萨克森州泌尿系统癌症预计从（2010年，n = 12668）到2020年增加15%（n = 14519；男性：15%，女性：10%），到2030年增加28%（n = 16201；男性：29%，女性：20%）。预计前列腺癌增幅最大（2030年：31%，n = 9732；C67 + D09.0 + D41.4：30%；C60：28%；C65 - 66：27%；C64：19%）。预计只有睾丸癌会减少（-13%）。各地区之间的增幅差异很大。在各县，发病率增幅从哈尔茨山麓奥斯特罗德的7%（2030年；C61：10%）到韦希塔的63%（C61：70%）不等。在城市社区，预计奥尔登堡增幅最大（总计：40%；C61：45%），沃尔夫斯堡增幅最小（总计：3%；C61：3%）。
预计人口结构变化将导致泌尿系统癌症急剧增加。在医疗保健规划（如专科护理）中，必须考虑到农村地区区域发展差异极大，尤其是增长迅速以及需要为越来越多年老且行动不便的癌症患者提供离家更近的护理。
