Stone Christopher M, Lindsay Steve W, Chitnis Nakul
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Durham University, Durham, United Kingdom.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2014 Dec 11;8(12):e3393. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003393. eCollection 2014 Dec.
The opportunity to integrate vector management across multiple vector-borne diseases is particularly plausible for malaria and lymphatic filariasis (LF) control where both diseases are transmitted by the same vector. To date most examples of integrated control targeting these diseases have been unanticipated consequences of malaria vector control, rather than planned strategies that aim to maximize the efficacy and take the complex ecological and biological interactions between the two diseases into account.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a general model of malaria and LF transmission and derived expressions for the basic reproductive number (R0) for each disease. Transmission of both diseases was most sensitive to vector mortality and biting rate. Simulating different levels of coverage of long lasting-insecticidal nets (LLINs) and larval control confirms the effectiveness of these interventions for the control of both diseases. When LF was maintained near the critical density of mosquitoes, minor levels of vector control (8% coverage of LLINs or treatment of 20% of larval sites) were sufficient to eliminate the disease. Malaria had a far greater R0 and required a 90% population coverage of LLINs in order to eliminate it. When the mosquito density was doubled, 36% and 58% coverage of LLINs and larval control, respectively, were required for LF elimination; and malaria elimination was possible with a combined coverage of 78% of LLINs and larval control.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Despite the low level of vector control required to eliminate LF, simulations suggest that prevalence of LF will decrease at a slower rate than malaria, even at high levels of coverage. If representative of field situations, integrated management should take into account not only how malaria control can facilitate filariasis elimination, but strike a balance between the high levels of coverage of (multiple) interventions required for malaria with the long duration predicted to be required for filariasis elimination.
对于疟疾和淋巴丝虫病(LF)的控制而言,整合针对多种媒介传播疾病的媒介管理机会尤其可行,因为这两种疾病均由同一媒介传播。迄今为止,大多数针对这些疾病的综合控制实例都是疟疾媒介控制产生的意外结果,而非旨在提高功效并考虑到两种疾病之间复杂生态和生物相互作用的计划策略。
方法/主要发现:我们建立了疟疾和LF传播的通用模型,并推导了每种疾病的基本繁殖数(R0)表达式。两种疾病的传播对媒介死亡率和叮咬率最为敏感。模拟不同水平的长效驱虫蚊帐(LLINs)覆盖率和幼虫控制情况,证实了这些干预措施对两种疾病控制的有效性。当LF维持在接近蚊子的临界密度时,少量的媒介控制(8%的LLINs覆盖率或20%的幼虫孳生地处理)就足以消除该疾病。疟疾的R0要大得多,需要90%的人口覆盖率的LLINs才能消除。当蚊子密度翻倍时,LF消除分别需要36%和58%的LLINs覆盖率和幼虫控制;而联合78%的LLINs覆盖率和幼虫控制则有可能消除疟疾。
结论/意义:尽管消除LF所需的媒介控制水平较低,但模拟结果表明,即使在高覆盖率情况下,LF的流行率下降速度也将比疟疾慢。如果能代表实地情况,综合管理不仅应考虑疟疾控制如何促进丝虫病消除,还应在疟疾所需的(多种)干预措施的高覆盖率与丝虫病消除预计所需的长时间之间取得平衡。