Kim Young-Min, Zhou Ying, Gao Yang, Fu Joshua S, Johnson Brent A, Huang Cheng, Liu Yang
Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Rd. NE, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 902 Battelle Blvd, Richland, Washington, USA.
Clim Change. 2015 Jan 1;128(1-2):71-84. doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1290-1.
The spatial pattern of the uncertainty in air pollution-related health impacts due to climate change has rarely been studied due to the lack of high-resolution model simulations, especially under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the latest greenhouse gas emission pathways. We estimated future tropospheric ozone (O) and related excess mortality and evaluated the associated uncertainties in the continental United States under RCPs. Based on dynamically downscaled climate model simulations, we calculated changes in O level at 12 km resolution between the future (2057-2059) and base years (2001-2004) under a low-to-medium emission scenario (RCP4.5) and a fossil fuel intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). We then estimated the excess mortality attributable to changes in O. Finally, we analyzed the sensitivity of the excess mortality estimates to the input variables and the uncertainty in the excess mortality estimation using Monte Carlo simulations. O-related premature deaths in the continental U.S. were estimated to be 1,312 deaths/year under RCP8.5 (95% confidence interval (CI): 427 to 2,198) and -2,118 deaths/year under RCP4.5 (95% CI: -3,021 to -1,216), when allowing for climate change and emissions reduction. The uncertainty of O-related excess mortality estimates was mainly caused by RCP emissions pathways. Excess mortality estimates attributable to the combined effect of climate and emission changes on O as well as the associated uncertainties vary substantially in space and so do the most influential input variables. Spatially resolved data is crucial to develop effective community level mitigation and adaptation policy.
由于缺乏高分辨率模型模拟，尤其是在最新的温室气体排放路径——代表性浓度路径（RCPs）下，气候变化导致的空气污染相关健康影响的不确定性空间格局很少被研究。我们估计了未来对流层臭氧（O₃）及相关超额死亡率，并评估了美国大陆在RCPs下的相关不确定性。基于动态降尺度气候模型模拟，我们计算了在低到中等排放情景（RCP4.5）和化石燃料密集型排放情景（RCP8.5）下，未来（2057 - 2059年）与基准年（2001 - 2004年）之间12公里分辨率的O₃水平变化。然后我们估计了归因于O₃变化的超额死亡率。最后，我们使用蒙特卡洛模拟分析了超额死亡率估计对输入变量的敏感性以及超额死亡率估计中的不确定性。考虑到气候变化和减排，预计美国大陆在RCP8.5下与O₃相关的过早死亡为每年1312例死亡（95%置信区间（CI）：427至2198），在RCP4.5下为每年 - 2118例死亡（95%CI： - 3021至 - 1216）。与O₃相关的超额死亡率估计的不确定性主要由RCP排放路径引起。归因于气候和排放变化对O₃的综合影响的超额死亡率估计以及相关不确定性在空间上有很大差异，最具影响力的输入变量也是如此。空间分辨率数据对于制定有效的社区层面缓解和适应政策至关重要。
