Lee Chang-Bae, Teske Raymond H C
University of Ulsan, South Korea
Sam Houston State University, Huntsville, TX, USA.
Int J Offender Ther Comp Criminol. 2015 Mar;59(3):230-58. doi: 10.1177/0306624X14554256.
Previous studies about recidivism of offenders have focused primarily on the nature of the sanctions and factors specific to the individual offender. This study addressed both individual and community factors, using a cohort of felony-level, driving while intoxicated (DWI) probationers (N = 370) charged in Harris County, Texas. The study investigated specific deterrent effects of sanctions on success or failure of probationers while controlling for the community contexts to observe how informal social control processes contextualize individual-level predictors. Results of a series of event history analyses tracking probationers for a period of 8 years indicated that severity of punishment, swiftness of punishment, criminal history, and completion of DWI education programs significantly affected the probationer's survival time, whereas no significant influence of community contexts on survival time or success was observed. Reducing the felony charge to a misdemeanor, a shorter period of probation, and past criminal history, combined with an almost immediate guilty plea, were significantly associated with short-term failure on probation.
以往关于罪犯累犯的研究主要集中在制裁的性质和个别罪犯特有的因素上。本研究探讨了个体因素和社区因素，以得克萨斯州哈里斯县一批被控重罪级醉酒驾驶（DWI）的缓刑犯（N = 370）为研究对象。该研究在控制社区背景的同时，调查了制裁对缓刑犯成功或失败的特定威慑作用，以观察非正式社会控制过程如何将个体层面的预测因素情境化。一系列对缓刑犯进行为期8年跟踪的事件史分析结果表明，惩罚的严厉程度、惩罚的迅速程度、犯罪史以及DWI教育项目的完成情况显著影响缓刑犯的生存时间，而未观察到社区背景对生存时间或缓刑成功有显著影响。将重罪指控降为轻罪、较短的缓刑期以及过去的犯罪史，再加上几乎立即认罪，与缓刑短期失败显著相关。
