Kearney Melissa S, Levine Phillip B
University of Maryland and NBER, USA.
Wellesley College and NBER, USA.
J Health Econ. 2015 May;41:15-29. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2015.01.003. Epub 2015 Jan 19.
We investigate trends in the U.S. rate of teen childbearing between 1981 and 2010, focusing specifically on the sizable decline since 1991. We focus on establishing the role of state-level demographic changes, economic conditions, and targeted policies in driving recent aggregate trends. We offer three main observations. First, the recent decline cannot be explained by the changing racial and ethnic composition of teens. Second, the only targeted policies that have had a statistically discernible impact on aggregate teen birth rates are declining welfare benefits and expanded access to family planning services through Medicaid, but these policies can account for only 12.6 percent of the observed decline since 1991. Third, higher unemployment rates lead to lower teen birth rates and can account for 16 percent of the decline in teen birth rates since the Great Recession began.
我们研究了1981年至2010年美国青少年生育率的趋势，特别关注自1991年以来的大幅下降。我们着重确定州级人口结构变化、经济状况和针对性政策在推动近期总体趋势方面所起的作用。我们提出三点主要看法。第一，近期的下降不能用青少年种族和族裔构成的变化来解释。第二，对总体青少年生育率有统计学上可察觉影响的唯一针对性政策是福利金减少以及通过医疗补助扩大计划生育服务的可及性，但这些政策只能解释自1991年以来观察到的下降的12.6%。第三，较高的失业率导致青少年生育率降低，并且可以解释自大衰退开始以来青少年生育率下降的16%。
