Luo Sheng, Su Xiao, Yi Min, Hunt Kelly K
Division of Biostatistics, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, 1200 Pressler St, Houston, TX 77030, USA (
Division of Biostatistics, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston.
J Appl Stat. 2015;42(5):1080-1090. doi: 10.1080/02664763.2014.995606.
Ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) often occurs in breast cancer patients after their breast conservation therapy. The IBTR status' classification (true local recurrence versus new ipsilateral primary tumor) is subject to error and there is no widely-accepted gold standard. Time to IBTR is likely informative for IBTR classification because new primary tumor tends to have a longer mean time to IBTR and is associated with improved survival as compared with the true local recurrence tumor. Moreover, some patients may die from breast cancer or other causes in a competing risk scenario during the follow-up period. Because the time to death can be correlated to the unobserved true IBTR status and time to IBTR (if relapse occurs), this terminal mechanism is non-ignorable. In this article, we propose a unified framework that addresses these issues simultaneously by modeling the misclassified binary outcome without a gold standard and the correlated time to IBTR, subject to dependent competing terminal events. We evaluate the proposed framework by a simulation study and apply it to a real dataset consisting of 4, 477 breast cancer patients. The adaptive Gaussian quadrature tools in SAS procedure NLMIXED can be conveniently used to fit the proposed model. We expect to see broad applications of our model in other studies with a similar data structure.
同侧乳腺肿瘤复发(IBTR)常发生于接受保乳治疗的乳腺癌患者中。IBTR状态的分类(真正的局部复发与同侧新发原发性肿瘤)容易出错,且尚无广泛接受的金标准。IBTR发生时间可能对IBTR分类具有参考价值,因为与真正的局部复发肿瘤相比,新发原发性肿瘤的IBTR平均发生时间往往更长,且与生存率提高相关。此外,在随访期间的竞争风险情况下,一些患者可能死于乳腺癌或其他原因。由于死亡时间可能与未观察到的真正IBTR状态以及IBTR发生时间(如果复发)相关,这种终末机制不可忽略。在本文中,我们提出了一个统一框架,通过对没有金标准的错误分类二元结局以及相关的IBTR发生时间进行建模,同时考虑相关的竞争终末事件,来解决这些问题。我们通过模拟研究评估所提出的框架,并将其应用于一个由4477例乳腺癌患者组成的真实数据集。SAS过程NLMIXED中的自适应高斯求积工具可方便地用于拟合所提出的模型。我们期望看到我们的模型在其他具有类似数据结构的研究中得到广泛应用。