陈述偏好与显示偏好之间的一致性：一项离散选择实验与一项关于疫苗接种行为的行为实验的比较
Consistency between stated and revealed preferences: a discrete choice experiment and a behavioural experiment on vaccination behaviour compared.
作者信息
Lambooij Mattijs S, Harmsen Irene A, Veldwijk Jorien, de Melker Hester, Mollema Liesbeth, van Weert Yolanda W M, de Wit G Ardine
机构信息
National Institute of Health and the Environment, Centre for Prevention and Health Services Research, P.O. Box 1 3720, Bilthoven, BA, The Netherlands.
National Institute of Health and the Environment, Centre for Infectious Disease Control, P.O. Box 1 3720, Bilthoven, BA, The Netherlands.
出版信息
BMC Med Res Methodol. 2015 Mar 12;15:19. doi: 10.1186/s12874-015-0010-5.
BACKGROUND
Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) are increasingly used in studies in healthcare research but there is still little empirical evidence for the predictive value of these hypothetical situations in similar real life circumstances. The aim of this paper is to compare the stated preferences in a DCE and the accompanying questionnaire with the revealed preferences of young parents who have to decide whether to vaccinate their new born child against hepatitis B.
METHODS
A DCE asking parents to decide in which scenario they would be more inclined to vaccinate their child against hepatitis B. The stated preference was estimated by comparing the per respondent utility of the most realistic scenario in which parents could choose to vaccinate their child against hepatitis B, with the utility of the opt-out, based on the mixed logit model from the DCE. This stated preference was compared with the actual behaviour of the parents concerning the vaccination of their new born child.
RESULTS
In 80% of the respondents the stated and revealed preferences corresponded. The positive predictive value is 85% but the negative predictive value is 26%.
CONCLUSIONS
The predictive value of the DCE in this study is satisfactory for predicting the positive choice but not for predicting the negative choice. However, the behaviour in this study is exceptional in the sense that most people chose to vaccinate. Future studies should focus on behaviours with a larger variance in the population.
背景
离散选择实验（DCEs）在医疗保健研究中越来越常用，但对于这些假设情境在类似现实生活情况下的预测价值，仍缺乏实证证据。本文旨在比较离散选择实验中的陈述偏好及其随附问卷与必须决定是否为其新生儿接种乙肝疫苗的年轻父母的显示偏好。
方法
进行一项离散选择实验，要求父母决定在何种情况下他们更倾向于为孩子接种乙肝疫苗。通过基于离散选择实验的混合逻辑模型，比较每个受访者在父母可选择为孩子接种乙肝疫苗的最现实情境中的效用与选择不接种的效用，来估计陈述偏好。将这种陈述偏好与父母关于其新生儿接种疫苗的实际行为进行比较。
结果
80%的受访者的陈述偏好与显示偏好相符。阳性预测值为85%，但阴性预测值为26%。
结论
本研究中离散选择实验的预测价值在预测阳性选择方面令人满意，但在预测阴性选择方面则不然。然而，本研究中的行为具有特殊性，因为大多数人选择接种疫苗。未来的研究应关注人群中差异更大的行为。
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