Suzuki-Parker Asuka, Kusaka Hiroyuki
Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennoudai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8572, Japan.
Center for Computational Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan.
Int J Biometeorol. 2016 Feb;60(2):307-10. doi: 10.1007/s00484-015-1001-2. Epub 2015 May 3.
Following the heatstroke prevention guideline by the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare of Japan, "safe hours" for heavy and light labor are estimated based on hourly wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) obtained from the three-member ensemble multi-period (the 2000s, 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) climate projections using dynamical downscaling approach. Our target cities are Tokyo and Osaka, Japan. The results show that most of the current climate daytime hours are "light labor safe,", but these hours are projected to decrease by 30-40% by the end of the twenty-first century. A 60-80% reduction is projected for heavy labor hours, resulting in less than 2 hours available for safe performance of heavy labor. The number of "heavy labor restricted days" (days with minimum daytime WBGT exceeding the safe level threshold for heavy labor) is projected to increase from ~5 days in the 2000s to nearly two-thirds of the days in August in the 2090s.
遵循日本厚生劳动省的中暑预防指南，根据使用动力降尺度方法从三成员集合多时期（21世纪00年代、30年代、50年代、70年代和90年代）气候预测中获得的每小时湿球黑球温度（WBGT），估算了重体力劳动和轻体力劳动的“安全时长”。我们的目标城市是日本的东京和大阪。结果表明，当前气候条件下的大多数白天时长属于“轻体力劳动安全时长”，但预计到21世纪末，这些时长将减少30%-40%。预计重体力劳动时长将减少60%-80%，导致可安全进行重体力劳动的时长不足2小时。“重体力劳动受限天数”（白天WBGT最小值超过重体力劳动安全水平阈值的天数）预计将从21世纪00年代的约5天增加到21世纪90年代8月近三分之二的天数。
