Zhu Jinxin, Wang Shuo, Zhang Boen, Wang Dagang
School of Geography and Planning Sun Yat-Sen University Guangzhou China.
Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics The Hong Kong Polytechnic University Hong Kong China.
Geohealth. 2021 Apr 1;5(4):e2020GH000313. doi: 10.1029/2020GH000313. eCollection 2021 Apr.
The intensification of heat stress reduces the labor capacity and hence poses a threat to socio-economic development. The reliable projection of the changing climate and the development of sound adaptation strategies are thus desired for adapting to the decreasing labor productivity under climate change. In this study, an optimization modeling approach coupled with dynamical downscaling is proposed to design the optimal adaptation strategies for improving labor productivity under heat stress in China. The future changes in heat stress represented by the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) are projected with a spatial resolution of 25 × 25 km by a regional climate model (RCM) through the dynamical downscaling of its driving global climate model (GCM). Uncertain information such as system costs, environmental costs, and subsidies are also incorporated into the optimization process to provide reliable decision alternatives for improving labor productivity. Results indicate that the intensification of WBGT is overestimated by the GCM compared to the RCM. Such an overestimation can lead to more losses in working hours derived from the GCM than those from the RCM regardless of climate scenarios. Nevertheless, the overestimated heat stress does not alter the regional measures taken to adapt to decreasing labor productivity. Compared to inland regions, the monsoon-affected regions tend to improve labor productivity by applying air conditioning rather than working overtime due to the cost differences. Consequently, decision-makers need to optimally make a balance between working overtime and air conditioning measures to meet sustainable development goals.
热应激加剧会降低劳动能力，进而对社会经济发展构成威胁。因此，为了适应气候变化下劳动生产率下降的情况，需要对气候变化进行可靠预测并制定合理的适应策略。在本研究中，提出了一种结合动力降尺度的优化建模方法，以设计中国在热应激下提高劳动生产率的最优适应策略。通过区域气候模型（RCM）对其驱动的全球气候模型（GCM）进行动力降尺度，以25×25千米的空间分辨率预测以湿球黑球温度（WBGT）表示的未来热应激变化。系统成本、环境成本和补贴等不确定信息也被纳入优化过程，以提供提高劳动生产率的可靠决策方案。结果表明，与RCM相比，GCM高估了WBGT的加剧程度。无论气候情景如何，这种高估都会导致GCM预测的工作时间损失比RCM更多。然而，高估的热应激并没有改变为适应劳动生产率下降而采取的区域措施。由于成本差异，与内陆地区相比，受季风影响的地区倾向于通过使用空调而不是加班来提高劳动生产率。因此，决策者需要在加班和空调措施之间进行最优平衡，以实现可持续发展目标。
