Akman Olcay, Schaefer Elsa
a Department of Mathematics , Illinois State University , Normal , IL 61790 , USA.
J Biol Dyn. 2015;9:147-58. doi: 10.1080/17513758.2015.1039608.
We consider the problem of using time-series data to inform a corresponding deterministic model and introduce the concept of genetic algorithms (GA) as a tool for parameter estimation, providing instructions for an implementation of the method that does not require access to special toolboxes or software. We give as an example a model for cholera, a disease for which there is much mechanistic uncertainty in the literature. We use GA to find parameter sets using available time-series data from the introduction of cholera in Haiti and we discuss the value of comparing multiple parameter sets with similar performances in describing the data.
我们考虑利用时间序列数据为相应的确定性模型提供信息的问题，并引入遗传算法（GA）的概念作为参数估计的工具，给出了该方法的实现说明，该实现不需要访问特殊的工具箱或软件。我们以霍乱模型为例，霍乱这种疾病在文献中有很多机制上的不确定性。我们使用遗传算法，利用海地引入霍乱后的可用时间序列数据来寻找参数集，并讨论在描述数据时比较多个具有相似性能的参数集的价值。
