Fong Lawrence Hoc Nang, So Amy Siu Ian, Law Rob
Faculty of Business Administration, University of Macau, Avenida da Universidade, Taipa, Macau SAR, China.
School of Hotel and Tourism Management, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, 17 Science Museum Road, TST East, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, China.
J Gambl Stud. 2016 Mar;32(1):171-85. doi: 10.1007/s10899-015-9550-1.
Cognitive bias is prevalent among gamblers, especially those with gambling problems. Grounded in the heuristics theories, this study contributes to the literature by examining a cognitive bias triggered by the break streak pattern in the casino setting. We postulate that gamblers tend to bet on the latest outcome when there is a break-streak pattern. Moreover, three determinants of the betting decision under break-streak pattern, including the streak length of the alternative outcome, the frequency of the latest outcome, and gender, were identified and examined in this study. A non-participatory observational study was conducted among the Cussec gamblers in a casino in Macao. An analysis of 1229 bets confirms our postulation, particularly when the streak of the alternative outcome is long, the latest outcome is frequent, and the gamblers are females. The findings provide meaningful implications for casino management and public policymakers regarding the minimization of gambling harm.
认知偏差在赌徒中很普遍，尤其是那些有赌博问题的人。基于启发式理论，本研究通过考察赌场环境中连胜中断模式引发的认知偏差，为该文献做出了贡献。我们假设，当出现连胜中断模式时，赌徒倾向于押注最新结果。此外，本研究还确定并考察了连胜中断模式下投注决策的三个决定因素，包括替代结果的连胜长度、最新结果的频率和性别。在澳门一家赌场对参与赌博的顾客进行了一项非参与性观察研究。对1229次投注的分析证实了我们的假设，特别是当替代结果的连胜时间长、最新结果频繁且赌徒为女性时。这些发现为赌场管理和公共政策制定者在将赌博危害降至最低方面提供了有意义的启示。
