Ichikawa Masao, Nakahara Shinji, Taniguchi Ayako
Faculty of Medicine, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8577, Japan.
Kanagawa University of Human Services, 1-10-1 Heisei-cho, Yokosuka, Kanagawa 238-8522, Japan.
Accid Anal Prev. 2015 Aug;81:120-3. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2015.05.004. Epub 2015 May 14.
In aging societies, increasing numbers of older drivers are involved in motor vehicle collisions (MVCs), and preserving their safety is a growing concern. In this study, we focused on whether older drivers were more likely to cause MVCs and injuries than drivers in other age groups. To do so we compared at-fault MVC incidence and resulting injury risks by drivers' ages, using data from Japan, a country with a rapidly aging population. The at-fault MVC incidence was calculated based on distance traveled made for non-commercial purposes, and the injury risks posed to at-fault drivers and other road users per at-fault MVCs. We used MVC data for 2010 from the National Police Agency of Japan and driving exposure data from the Nationwide Person Trip Survey conducted by a Japanese governmental ministry in 2010. The at-fault MVC incidence showed a U-shaped curve across the drivers' ages, where teenage and the oldest drivers appeared to be the highest risk groups in terms of causing MVCs, and the incidence was higher for female drivers after age 25. The injury risk older drivers posed to other vehicle occupants because of their at-fault MVCs was lower than for drivers in other age groups, while their own injury risk appeared much higher. As the number of older drivers is increasing, efforts to reduce their at-fault MVCs appear justified.
在老龄化社会中，越来越多的老年驾驶员卷入机动车碰撞事故（MVC），保障他们的安全日益受到关注。在本研究中，我们关注老年驾驶员是否比其他年龄组的驾驶员更有可能导致MVC及伤害。为此，我们利用来自日本（一个人口快速老龄化的国家）的数据，比较了不同年龄驾驶员的过错性MVC发生率及由此导致的伤害风险。过错性MVC发生率是根据非商业目的行驶里程计算得出的，以及每次过错性MVC对过错驾驶员和其他道路使用者造成的伤害风险。我们使用了日本国家警察厅2010年的MVC数据以及日本一个政府部门2010年进行的全国个人出行调查中的驾驶暴露数据。过错性MVC发生率在驾驶员年龄分布上呈U形曲线，青少年和年龄最大的驾驶员在导致MVC方面似乎是风险最高的群体，25岁以后女性驾驶员的发生率更高。老年驾驶员因其过错性MVC对其他车内乘客造成的伤害风险低于其他年龄组的驾驶员，而他们自身的伤害风险似乎要高得多。随着老年驾驶员数量的增加，努力减少他们的过错性MVC似乎是合理的。
