Morris Aaron, Gozlan Rodolphe E, Hassani Hossein, Andreou Demetra, Couppié Pierre, Guégan Jean-François
Bournemouth University, Dorset BH12 5BB , UK ; UMR MIVEGEC, IRD-CNRS-Universités de Montpellier 1 et 2, Centre IRD de Montpellier, 34394 Montpellier cedex 5 , France.
Bournemouth University, Dorset BH12 5BB , UK ; UMR BOREA, IRD-MNHN-Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, 375231 Paris cedex 5 , France.
Emerg Microbes Infect. 2014 Aug;3(8):e56. doi: 10.1038/emi.2014.56. Epub 2014 Aug 6.
Predominantly occurring in developing parts of the world, Buruli ulcer is a severely disabling mycobacterium infection which often leads to extensive necrosis of the skin. While the exact route of transmission remains uncertain, like many tropical diseases, associations with climate have been previously observed and could help identify the causative agent's ecological niche. In this paper, links between changes in rainfall and outbreaks of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana, an ultraperipheral European territory in the northeast of South America, were identified using a combination of statistical tests based on singular spectrum analysis, empirical mode decomposition and cross-wavelet coherence analysis. From this, it was possible to postulate for the first time that outbreaks of Buruli ulcer can be triggered by combinations of rainfall patterns occurring on a long (i.e., several years) and short (i.e., seasonal) temporal scale, in addition to stochastic events driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that may disrupt or interact with these patterns. Long-term forecasting of rainfall trends further suggests the possibility of an upcoming outbreak of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana.
布氏溃疡主要发生在世界上的发展中地区，是一种严重致残的分枝杆菌感染，常导致皮肤广泛坏死。虽然确切的传播途径仍不确定，但与许多热带疾病一样，此前已观察到其与气候的关联，这有助于确定病原体的生态位。在本文中，结合基于奇异谱分析、经验模态分解和交叉小波相干分析的统计测试，确定了南美洲东北部欧洲超外围地区法属圭亚那降雨变化与布氏溃疡爆发之间的联系。据此，首次推测布氏溃疡的爆发可能由长期（即数年）和短期（即季节性）时间尺度上的降雨模式组合引发，此外，厄尔尼诺 - 南方涛动驱动的随机事件可能会扰乱这些模式或与之相互作用。对降雨趋势的长期预测进一步表明法属圭亚那即将爆发布氏溃疡的可能性。
