Cameron Michael P, Cochrane William, Gordon Craig, Livingston Michael
Department of Economics, University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand.
National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis, University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand.
Drug Alcohol Rev. 2016 May;35(3):280-8. doi: 10.1111/dar.12295. Epub 2015 Jun 29.
We investigate the relationship between outlet density (of different types) and violence (as measured by police activity) across the North Island of New Zealand, specifically looking at whether the relationships vary spatially.
We use New Zealand data at the census area unit (approximately suburb) level, on police-attended violent incidents and outlet density (by type of outlet), controlling for population density and local social deprivation. We employed geographically weighted regression to obtain both global average and locally specific estimates of the relationships between alcohol outlet density and violence.
We find that bar and night club density, and licensed club density (e.g. sports clubs) have statistically significant and positive relationships with violence, with an additional bar or night club is associated with nearly 5.3 additional violent events per year, and an additional licensed club associated with 0.8 additional violent events per year. These relationships do not show significant spatial variation. In contrast, the effects of off-licence density and restaurant/café density do exhibit significant spatial variation. However, the non-varying effects of bar and night club density are larger than the locally specific effects of other outlet types.
The relationships between outlet density and violence vary significantly across space for off-licences and restaurants/cafés. These results suggest that in order to minimise alcohol-related harms, such as violence, locally specific policy interventions are likely to be necessary. [Cameron MP, Cochrane W, Gordon C, Livingston M. Alcohol outlet density and violence: A geographically weighted regression approach. Drug Alcohol Rev 2016;35:280-288].
我们研究了新西兰北岛不同类型营业场所的密度与暴力行为(以警方活动衡量)之间的关系,特别关注这些关系在空间上是否存在差异。
我们使用了普查区单元(大致相当于郊区)层面的新西兰数据,涉及警方处理的暴力事件和营业场所密度(按营业场所类型划分),同时控制了人口密度和当地社会剥夺情况。我们采用地理加权回归来获取酒精营业场所密度与暴力行为之间关系的全局平均估计值和局部特定估计值。
我们发现酒吧和夜总会密度以及持牌俱乐部密度(如体育俱乐部)与暴力行为存在统计学上显著的正相关关系,每增加一家酒吧或夜总会,每年大约会增加5.3起暴力事件,每增加一家持牌俱乐部,每年会增加0.8起暴力事件。这些关系没有显示出显著的空间差异。相比之下,无牌酒类商店密度和餐厅/咖啡馆密度的影响确实表现出显著的空间差异。然而,酒吧和夜总会密度不变的影响大于其他营业场所类型的局部特定影响。
无牌酒类商店和餐厅/咖啡馆的营业场所密度与暴力行为之间的关系在空间上存在显著差异。这些结果表明,为了将与酒精相关的危害(如暴力行为)降至最低,可能需要采取针对当地情况的政策干预措施。[卡梅伦·MP、科克伦·W、戈登·C、利文斯顿·M。酒精营业场所密度与暴力行为:一种地理加权回归方法。《药物与酒精评论》2016年;35:280 - 288]