Penno Erin C, Crump John A, Baird Sarah J
Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, Centre for Health Systems, Dunedin School of Medicine, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; Centre for International Health, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; Department of Global Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC.
Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, Centre for Health Systems, Dunedin School of Medicine, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; Centre for International Health, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; Department of Global Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, DC
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2015 Oct;93(4):841-9. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.15-0082. Epub 2015 Jul 20.
Bacterial sepsis is an important cause of mortality in low- and middle-income countries, yet distinguishing patients with sepsis from those with other illnesses remains a challenge. Currently, management decisions are based on clinical assessment using algorithms such as Integrated Management of Adolescent and Adult Illness. Efforts to develop and evaluate point-of-care tests (POCTs) for sepsis to guide decisions on the use of antimicrobials are underway. To establish the minimum performance characteristics of such a test, we varied the characteristics of a hypothetical POCT for sepsis required for it to be cost-effective and applied a decision tree model to a population of febrile patients presenting at the district hospital level in a low-resource setting. We used a case fatality probability of 20% for appropriately treated sepsis and of 50% for inappropriately treated sepsis. On the basis of clinical assessment for sepsis with established sensitivity of 0.83 and specificity of 0.62, we found that a POCT for sepsis with a sensitivity of 0.83 and a specificity of 0.94 was cost-effective, resulting in parity in survival but costing $1.14 less per live saved. A POCT with accuracy equivalent to the best malaria rapid diagnostic test was cheaper and more effective than clinical assessment.
在低收入和中等收入国家,细菌性败血症是导致死亡的一个重要原因,但区分败血症患者与其他疾病患者仍然是一项挑战。目前,管理决策是基于使用诸如《青少年和成人疾病综合管理》等算法进行的临床评估。正在努力开发和评估用于败血症的即时检验(POCT),以指导抗菌药物使用决策。为确定此类检验的最低性能特征,我们改变了一种假设的用于败血症的POCT的特征,使其具有成本效益,并将决策树模型应用于资源匮乏地区县级医院就诊的发热患者群体。对于适当治疗的败血症,我们使用20%的病死率;对于治疗不当的败血症,使用50%的病死率。基于对败血症的临床评估,其既定敏感性为0.83,特异性为0.62,我们发现一种用于败血症的POCT,敏感性为0.83,特异性为0.94,具有成本效益,可使生存率持平,但每挽救一条生命的成本降低1.14美元。一种准确性等同于最佳疟疾快速诊断试验的POCT比临床评估更便宜且更有效。