Mohammadbeigi Abolfazl, Mohammadsalehi Narges, Valizadeh Razieh, Momtaheni Zeinab, Mokhtari Mohsen, Ansari Hossein
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health, Health Policy and Promotion Research Center, Qom University of Medical Sciences, Qom, Iran.
Department of Research Vice-chancellor, Qom University of Medical Sciences, Qom, Iran.
J Pharm Bioallied Sci. 2015 Jul-Sep;7(3):207-11. doi: 10.4103/0975-7406.160020.
Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancers in women worldwide and in Iran. It is expected to account for 29% of all new cancers in women at 2015. This study aimed to assess the 5 years and lifetime risk of breast cancer according to Gail model, and to evaluate the effect of other additional risk factors on the Gail risk.
A cross sectional study conducted on 296 women aged more than 34-year-old in Qom, Center of Iran. Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool calculated the Gail risk for each subject. Data were analyzed by paired t-test, independent t-test, and analysis of variance in bivariate approach to evaluate the effect of each factor on Gail risk. Multiple linear regression models with stepwise method were used to predict the effect of each variable on the Gail risk.
The mean age of the participants was 47.8 ± 8.8-year-old and 47% have Fars ethnicity. The 5 years and lifetime risk was 0.37 ± 0.18 and 4.48 ± 0.925%, respectively. It was lower than the average risk in same race and age women (P < 0.001). Being single, positive family history of breast cancer, positive history of biopsy, and radiotherapy as well as using nonhormonal contraceptives were related to higher lifetime risk (P < 0.05). Moreover, a significant direct correlation observed between lifetime risk and body mass index, age of first live birth, and menarche age. While an inversely correlation observed between lifetimes risk of breast cancer and total month of breast feeding duration and age.
Based on our results, the 5 years and lifetime risk of breast cancer according to Gail model was lower than the same race and age. Moreover, by comparison with national epidemiologic indicators about morbidity and mortality of breast cancer, it seems that the Gail model overestimate the risk of breast cancer in Iranian women.
乳腺癌是全球及伊朗女性中最常被诊断出的癌症。预计到2015年，它将占女性所有新发癌症的29%。本研究旨在根据盖尔模型评估乳腺癌的5年和终生风险，并评估其他额外风险因素对盖尔风险的影响。
在伊朗中部库姆对296名年龄超过34岁的女性进行了一项横断面研究。乳腺癌风险评估工具计算了每个受试者的盖尔风险。采用配对t检验、独立t检验和双变量方差分析对数据进行分析，以评估各因素对盖尔风险的影响。使用逐步法的多元线性回归模型来预测每个变量对盖尔风险的影响。
参与者的平均年龄为47.8±8.8岁，47%为法尔斯族。5年和终生风险分别为0.37±0.18%和4.48±0.925%。低于同种族和年龄女性的平均风险（P<0.001）。单身、有乳腺癌家族史、活检阳性史、放疗史以及使用非激素避孕药与较高的终生风险相关（P<0.05）。此外，终生风险与体重指数、首次生育年龄和初潮年龄之间存在显著的正相关。而乳腺癌终生风险与母乳喂养总月数和年龄之间呈负相关。
根据我们的结果，按照盖尔模型，乳腺癌的5年和终生风险低于同种族和年龄者。此外，与关于乳腺癌发病率和死亡率的国家流行病学指标相比，盖尔模型似乎高估了伊朗女性患乳腺癌的风险。
