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数值天气预报的悄然变革。

The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction.

机构信息

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading RG2 9AX, UK.

Environment Canada, Trans-Canada Highway Dorval, Québec H9P 1J3, Canada.

出版信息

Nature. 2015 Sep 3;525(7567):47-55. doi: 10.1038/nature14956.

Abstract

Advances in numerical weather prediction represent a quiet revolution because they have resulted from a steady accumulation of scientific knowledge and technological advances over many years that, with only a few exceptions, have not been associated with the aura of fundamental physics breakthroughs. Nonetheless, the impact of numerical weather prediction is among the greatest of any area of physical science. As a computational problem, global weather prediction is comparable to the simulation of the human brain and of the evolution of the early Universe, and it is performed every day at major operational centres across the world.

摘要

数值天气预报的进步代表了一场悄然的革命,因为它们是多年来科学知识和技术进步的稳步积累的结果,除了少数例外,这些进步都与基础物理突破的光环无关。尽管如此,数值天气预报的影响是物理科学领域中最大的之一。作为一个计算问题,全球天气预报与对人类大脑和早期宇宙演化的模拟相当,并且每天都在世界各地的主要业务中心进行。

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