Akbari Maryam, Tabrizi Reza, Heydari Seyed Taghi, Sekhavati Eghbal, Moosazadeh Mahmood, Lankarani Kamran Bagheri
M.Sc. in Epidemiology, Health Policy Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran.
Assistant Professor of Biostatistics, Health Policy Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran.
Electron Physician. 2015 Sep 16;7(5):1247-54. doi: 10.14661/1247. eCollection 2015 Sep.
Pedestrians are the most vulnerable group to accidents among road users. Due to the well-known concerns and complications of accidents involving pedestrians, the aim of this study was to identify the rate of such accidents for five-year period.
We analyzed all fatalities among pedestrians caused by traffic accidents during years of 2009-2013 in Fars Province in Iran. The study was a cross-sectional study in which logistic regression analysis was used to predict the death rate among pedestrians. Sensitivity analysis using the Monte Carlo method was used to increase the accuracy of the results. Then, we predicted the death rates for the years 2014-2018 predicted and compared the results with the actual data from the previous five-year period (2009-2013).
During 2009-2013, 1723 out of 8689 (20.3%) of the people killed in traffic accidents were pedestrians. The death rate for male pedestrians in 2011 was estimated to be 10.86 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 9.85-12.05 per 100,000). Compared to the data for 2006, this represented a decrease of 20% (with a mean decrease of 4% per year). Based on these data, the death date in 2018n was projected to be 8.08 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 7.26-8.87). Similar data and analysis for women indicated that the reduction in the rate of fatalities has been smaller than that for men in recent years, i.e., 2.2% versus 4%.
Although great progress has been made in reducing traffic accidents, to date, the death rate is still high among pedestrians. It is essential to continue to find ways to reduce traffic accidents and the pedestrians' deaths associated with them, especially among the elderly, who make up a disproportionate fraction of the deaths.
行人是道路使用者中最易遭遇事故的弱势群体。鉴于涉及行人事故的诸多已知问题及并发症，本研究旨在确定五年期间此类事故的发生率。
我们分析了2009年至2013年伊朗法尔斯省交通事故导致的所有行人死亡案例。该研究为横断面研究，采用逻辑回归分析预测行人死亡率。使用蒙特卡罗方法进行敏感性分析以提高结果的准确性。然后，我们预测了2014年至2018年的死亡率，并将结果与前一个五年期（2009年至2013年）的实际数据进行比较。
在2009年至2013年期间，交通事故死亡的8689人中，有1723人（20.3%）为行人。2011年男性行人死亡率估计为每10万人中有10.86人（95%的不确定性区间为每10万人9.85 - 12.05人）。与2006年的数据相比，这代表下降了20%（平均每年下降4%）。基于这些数据，预计2018年的死亡率为每10万人8.08人（95%的不确定性区间为7.26 - 8.87）。对女性的类似数据和分析表明，近年来死亡率的下降幅度小于男性，即分别为2.2%和4%。
尽管在减少交通事故方面已取得巨大进展，但迄今为止，行人死亡率仍然很高。必须继续寻找方法来减少交通事故及其导致的行人死亡，尤其是在老年人中，他们在死亡人数中所占比例过高。
