Nazif-Muñoz José Ignacio
a McGill University , Montreal , Quebec , Canada.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2015;16 Suppl 2:S32-40. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2015.1061661.
The objective of the current study is to determine what factors have been associated with the global adoption of mandatory child restraint laws (ChRLs) since 1975.
In order to determine what factors explained the global adoption of mandatory ChRLs, Weibull models were analyzed. To carry out this analysis, 170 countries were considered and the time risk corresponded to 5,146 observations for the period 1957-2013. The dependent variable was first time to adopt a ChRL. Independent variables representing global factors were the World Health Organization (WHO) and World Bank's (WB) road safety global campaign; the Geneva Convention on Road Traffic; and the United Nation's (UN) 1958 Vehicle Agreement. Independent variables representing regional factors were the creation of the European Transport Safety Council and being a Commonwealth country. Independent variables representing national factors were population; gross domestic product (GDP) per capita; political violence; existence of road safety nongovernmental organizations (NGOs); and existence of road safety agencies. Urbanization served as a control variable. To examine regional dynamics, Weibull models for Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Commonwealth were also carried out.
Empirical estimates from full Weibull models suggest that 2 global factors and 2 national factors are significantly associated with the adoption of this measure. The global factors explaining adoption are the WHO and WB's road safety global campaign implemented after 2004 (P <.01), and the UN's 1958 Vehicle Agreement (P <.001). National factors were GDP (P <.01) and existence of road safety agencies (P <.05). The time parameter ρ for the full Weibull model was 1.425 (P <.001), suggesting that the likelihood of ChRL adoption increased over the observed period of time, confirming that the diffusion of this policy was global. Regional analysis showed that the UN's Convention on Road Traffic was significant in Asia, the creation of the European Transport Safety Council was significant in Europe and North America, and the global campaign was in Africa. In Commonwealth and European and North American countries, the existence of road safety agencies was also positively associated with ChRL adoption.
Results of the world models suggest that the WHO and WB's global road safety campaign was effective in disseminating ChRLs after 2004. Furthermore, regions such as Asia and Europe and North America were early adopters since specific regional and national characteristics anticipated the introduction of this policy before 2004. In this particular case, the creation of the European Transport Safety Council was fundamental in promoting ChRLs. Thus, in order to introduce conditions to more rapidly diffuse road safety measures across lagging regions, the maintenance of global efforts and the creation of road safety regional organizations should be encouraged. Lastly, the case of ChRL convergence illustrates how mechanisms of global and regional diffusion need to be analytically differentiated in order better to assess the process of policy diffusion.
本研究的目的是确定自1975年以来与强制性儿童约束法律（ChRLs）在全球范围内采用相关的因素。
为了确定哪些因素解释了强制性ChRLs在全球范围内的采用情况，对威布尔模型进行了分析。为进行此分析，考虑了170个国家，时间风险对应于1957 - 2013年期间的5146次观测。因变量是首次采用ChRL的时间。代表全球因素的自变量是世界卫生组织（WHO）和世界银行（WB）的道路安全全球运动；《日内瓦道路交通公约》；以及联合国（UN）1958年的《车辆协定》。代表区域因素的自变量是欧洲交通安全理事会的成立以及作为英联邦国家。代表国家因素的自变量是人口；人均国内生产总值（GDP）；政治暴力；道路安全非政府组织（NGO）的存在；以及道路安全机构的存在。城市化作为控制变量。为研究区域动态，还对非洲、亚洲、欧洲、北美、拉丁美洲、加勒比地区和英联邦的威布尔模型进行了分析。
完整威布尔模型的实证估计表明，2个全球因素和2个国家因素与该措施的采用显著相关。解释采用情况的全球因素是2004年后实施的WHO和WB的道路安全全球运动（P <.01），以及UN 1958年的《车辆协定》（P <.001）。国家因素是GDP（P <.01）和道路安全机构的存在（P <.05）。完整威布尔模型的时间参数ρ为1.425（P <.001），表明在观察期内ChRL采用的可能性增加，证实了该政策的传播是全球性的。区域分析表明，《联合国道路交通公约》在亚洲具有显著性，欧洲交通安全理事会的成立在欧洲和北美具有显著性，全球运动在非洲具有显著性。在英联邦以及欧洲和北美国家，道路安全机构的存在也与ChRL的采用呈正相关。
全球模型的结果表明，WHO和WB的全球道路安全运动在2004年后有效地传播了ChRLs。此外，亚洲、欧洲和北美等地区是早期采用者，因为特定的区域和国家特征在2004年前就预示了该政策的引入。在这种特殊情况下，欧洲交通安全理事会的成立对促进ChRLs至关重要。因此，为了引入条件以便在滞后地区更迅速地传播道路安全措施，应鼓励维持全球努力并创建道路安全区域组织。最后，ChRL趋同的案例说明了如何在分析上区分全球和区域扩散机制，以便更好地评估政策扩散过程。
