Pandeya Nirmala, Wilson Louise F, Bain Christopher J, Martin Kara L, Webb Penelope M, Whiteman David C
QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Queensland.
School of Public Health, The University of Queensland.
Aust N Z J Public Health. 2015 Oct;39(5):464-70. doi: 10.1111/1753-6405.12446.
To estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) and numbers of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 attributable to tobacco smoking, both personal and by a partner.
We used a modified Peto-Lopez approach to calculate the difference between the number of lung cancer cases observed and the number expected assuming the entire population developed lung cancer at the same rate as never smokers. For cancers other than lung, we applied the standard PAF formula using relative risks from a large cohort and derived notional smoking prevalence. To estimate the PAF for partners' smoking, we used the standard formula incorporating the proportion of non-smoking Australians living with an ever-smoking partner and relative risks associated with partner smoking.
An estimated 15,525 (13%) cancers in Australia in 2010 were attributable to tobacco smoke, including 8,324 (81%) lung, 1,973 (59%) oral cavity and pharynx, 855 (60%) oesophagus and 951 (6%) colorectal cancers. Of these, 136 lung cancers in non-smokers were attributable to partner tobacco smoke.
More than one in eight cancers in Australia is attributable to tobacco smoking and would be avoided if nobody smoked.
Strategies to reduce the prevalence of smoking remain a high priority for cancer control.
估算2010年澳大利亚因个人吸烟及伴侣吸烟导致的癌症人群归因分数（PAF）及癌症发病数。
我们采用改良的佩托 - 洛佩斯方法，计算观察到的肺癌病例数与假设整个人口以与从不吸烟者相同的速率患肺癌时预期病例数之间的差异。对于肺癌以外的癌症，我们使用标准的PAF公式，该公式采用来自大型队列研究的相对风险并推导理论吸烟流行率。为了估算伴侣吸烟的PAF，我们使用标准公式，该公式纳入了与曾经吸烟的伴侣共同生活的非吸烟澳大利亚人的比例以及与伴侣吸烟相关的相对风险。
2010年澳大利亚估计有15,525例（13%）癌症可归因于烟草烟雾，其中包括8,324例（81%）肺癌、1,973例（59%）口腔和咽部癌、855例（60%）食管癌和951例（6%）结直肠癌。其中，136例非吸烟者的肺癌可归因于伴侣的烟草烟雾。
澳大利亚超过八分之一的癌症可归因于吸烟，如果无人吸烟则可避免。
降低吸烟流行率的策略仍然是癌症控制的高度优先事项。
