Whiteman David C, Webb Penelope M, Green Adele C, Neale Rachel E, Fritschi Lin, Bain Christopher J, Parkin D Max, Wilson Louise F, Olsen Catherine M, Nagle Christina M, Pandeya Nirmala, Jordan Susan J, Antonsson Annika, Kendall Bradley J, Hughes Maria Celia B, Ibiebele Torukiri I, Miura Kyoko, Peters Susan, Carey Renee N
QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Queensland.
School of Public Health, The University of Queensland.
Aust N Z J Public Health. 2015 Oct;39(5):403-7. doi: 10.1111/1753-6405.12468.
To describe the approach underpinning a national project to estimate the numbers and proportions of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 that are attributable to modifiable causal factors.
We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) (or prevented fraction) of cancers associated with exposure to causal (or preventive) factors using standard formulae. Where possible, we also estimated the potential impact on cancer incidence resulting from changes in prevalence of exposure. Analyses were restricted to factors declared causal by international agencies: tobacco smoke; alcohol; solar radiation; infectious agents; obesity; insufficient physical activity; insufficient intakes of fruits, vegetables and fibre; red and processed meat; menopausal hormone therapy (MHT); oral contraceptive pill (OCP); and insufficient breast feeding. Separately, we estimated numbers of cancers prevented by: aspirin; sunscreen; MHT; and OCP use. We discuss assumptions pertaining to latent periods between exposure and cancer onset, choices of prevalence data and risk estimates, and approaches to sensitivity analyses.
Numbers and population attributable fractions of cancer are presented in accompanying papers.
This is the first systematic assessment of population attributable fractions of cancer in Australia.
描述一项全国性项目所采用的方法，该项目旨在估算2010年澳大利亚因可改变的致癌因素而发生的癌症数量及比例。
我们使用标准公式估算与接触致癌（或预防）因素相关的癌症的人群归因分数（PAF）（或预防分数）。在可能的情况下，我们还估算了接触率变化对癌症发病率的潜在影响。分析仅限于国际机构认定的致癌因素：烟草烟雾、酒精、太阳辐射、感染因子、肥胖、体力活动不足、水果、蔬菜和纤维摄入不足、红肉和加工肉类、绝经激素治疗（MHT）、口服避孕药（OCP）以及母乳喂养不足。另外，我们估算了因使用阿司匹林、防晒霜、MHT和OCP而预防的癌症数量。我们讨论了与接触和癌症发病之间的潜伏期、患病率数据和风险估计的选择以及敏感性分析方法相关的假设。
相关论文中列出了癌症的数量和人群归因分数。
这是对澳大利亚癌症人群归因分数的首次系统评估。
