Valente Thomas W, Dyal Stephanie R, Chu Kar-Hai, Wipfli Heather, Fujimoto Kayo
Department of Preventive Medicine, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, USA.
Department of Preventive Medicine, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, USA.
Soc Sci Med. 2015 Nov;145:89-97. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2015.10.001. Epub 2015 Oct 13.
This study applies diffusion of innovations theory to understand network influences on country ratification of an international health treaty, the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC). From 2003 to 2014 approximately 90% of United Nations member countries ratified the FCTC. We hypothesized that communication between tobacco control advocates on GLOBALink, a 7000-member online communication forum in existence from 1992 to 2012, would be associated with the timing of treaty ratification. We further hypothesized dynamic network influences such that external influence decreased over time, internal influence increased over time, and the role of opinion leader countries varied over time. In addition we develop two concepts: Susceptibility and influence that uncover the micro-level dynamics of network influence. Statistical analyses lend support to the influence of co-subscriptions on GLOBALink providing a conduit for inter-country influences on treaty ratification and some support for the dynamic hypotheses. Analyses of susceptibility and infection indicated particularly influential countries. These results have implications for the study of policy diffusion as well as dynamic models of behavior change.
本研究应用创新扩散理论来理解网络对各国批准一项国际卫生条约——《烟草控制框架公约》（FCTC）的影响。2003年至2014年期间，约90%的联合国成员国批准了《烟草控制框架公约》。我们假设，1992年至2012年存在的拥有7000名成员的在线交流论坛GLOBALink上烟草控制倡导者之间的交流，将与条约批准的时间相关。我们进一步假设存在动态网络影响，即外部影响随时间减少，内部影响随时间增加，且意见领袖国家的作用随时间变化。此外，我们提出了两个概念：易感性和影响力，它们揭示了网络影响的微观层面动态。统计分析支持了GLOBALink上共同订阅的影响，为国家间对条约批准的影响提供了一个渠道，并为动态假设提供了一些支持。对易感性和影响力的分析表明了特别有影响力的国家。这些结果对政策扩散研究以及行为改变的动态模型具有启示意义。
