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在加纳对公交/小巴交通事故严重程度进行建模。

Modelling public bus/minibus transport accident severity in Ghana.

机构信息

Dept. of Geography Education, University of Education, Winneba, Ghana; UHasselt- Hasselt University, Transportation Research Institute (IMOB), Agoralaan, 3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium.

UHasselt- Hasselt University, Transportation Research Institute (IMOB), Agoralaan, 3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium; Vias Institute, Haachtsesteenweg 1405, 1130 Brussels, Belgium.

出版信息

Accid Anal Prev. 2018 Oct;119:114-121. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2018.07.008. Epub 2018 Jul 17.

Abstract

The current safety concerns with buses/minibuses (public transport) in both developed and developing countries have warranted a renewed interest in bus/minibus safety research. Prior to this, there was a paucity of research in this domain especially in developed countries where the safety associated with buses was deemed adequate. In this study, we examined the factors that influence bus/minibus accident severity in Ghana using bus/minibus accident data from 2011-2015. We estimated the severity of bus/minibus accidents by fitting generalised ordered logit models. Our findings revealed that weekends, the absence of road median, night-time conditions, bad road terrain (curved, wet and rough roads), hit-pedestrian collisions, and drunk driving are associated with more severe bus/minibus accident outcomes. Conversely, minibuses, the absence of road shoulder, accidents in intersections, the presence of traffic control and collision types (except hit-pedestrian) are associated with less severe bus/minibus accidents.

摘要

当前,无论是在发达国家还是发展中国家,公交车/小型巴士(公共交通)的安全问题都引起了人们对巴士/小型巴士安全研究的重新关注。在此之前,该领域的研究相对较少,尤其是在发达国家,人们认为巴士的安全性是足够的。在这项研究中,我们利用 2011 年至 2015 年的巴士/小型巴士事故数据,研究了影响加纳巴士/小型巴士事故严重程度的因素。我们通过拟合广义有序逻辑模型来估计巴士/小型巴士事故的严重程度。研究结果表明,周末、没有道路中央隔离带、夜间条件、恶劣的道路地形(弯曲、潮湿和崎岖的道路)、碰撞行人以及酒后驾车与更严重的巴士/小型巴士事故后果有关。相反,小型巴士、没有路肩、十字路口事故、交通管制和碰撞类型(行人碰撞除外)与较不严重的巴士/小型巴士事故有关。

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