Division of Humanities and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, 1200 East California Boulevard, MC 228-77, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA.
Department of Economics, Stockholm School of Economics, Box 6501, SE-113 83 Stockholm, Sweden.
Science. 2016 Mar 25;351(6280):1433-6. doi: 10.1126/science.aaf0918. Epub 2016 Mar 3.
The replicability of some scientific findings has recently been called into question. To contribute data about replicability in economics, we replicated 18 studies published in the American Economic Review and the Quarterly Journal of Economics between 2011 and 2014. All of these replications followed predefined analysis plans that were made publicly available beforehand, and they all have a statistical power of at least 90% to detect the original effect size at the 5% significance level. We found a significant effect in the same direction as in the original study for 11 replications (61%); on average, the replicated effect size is 66% of the original. The replicability rate varies between 67% and 78% for four additional replicability indicators, including a prediction market measure of peer beliefs.
最近,一些科学发现的可重复性受到了质疑。为了提供经济学领域可重复性的数据,我们对 2011 年至 2014 年间发表在《美国经济评论》和《经济学季刊》上的 18 项研究进行了复制。所有这些复制都遵循了事先公开的预设分析计划,并且都具有至少 90%的统计功效,能够在 5%的显著水平下检测到原始效应大小。我们发现 11 项复制研究(61%)的结果与原始研究具有相同的方向的显著效应;平均而言,复制的效应大小为原始的 66%。对于包括同行信念预测市场衡量标准在内的另外四项可重复性指标,可重复性率在 67%至 78%之间变化。