Landrigan P J, Markowitz S
Department of Community Medicine, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, New York 10029.
Ann N Y Acad Sci. 1989;572:27-45; discussion 55-60. doi: 10.1111/j.1749-6632.1989.tb13568.x.
The data from our study indicate that the magnitude of occupational disease in New York State is considerable, and that a detailed and comprehensive plan must be initiated and implemented if occupational disease is to be controlled. New York State contains slightly less than 10% of the nation's workforce. A direct linear extrapolation of findings in New York State cannot be made to derive estimates of the national burden of work-related illness. Nevertheless, a crude estimate of the national magnitude of occupational disease can be derived from the New York experience. Such extrapolation provides a crude estimate of 50,000-70,000 deaths each year from occupational disease and of 350,000 new cases of occupational illness. These numbers are distressingly similar to the annual estimates of 100,000 deaths and 400,000 cases of occupational illness developed almost 15 years ago by Ashford. Clearly substantial progress remains to be made.
我们研究的数据表明，纽约州职业病的规模相当大，如果要控制职业病，必须启动并实施一项详细而全面的计划。纽约州的劳动力略少于全国劳动力的10%。不能直接根据纽约州的调查结果进行线性推断来得出全国与工作相关疾病负担的估计值。然而，可以从纽约州的经验中粗略估计全国职业病的规模。这样的推断得出每年因职业病死亡人数约为5万至7万，新增职业病病例约为35万例。这些数字与近15年前阿什福德得出的每年10万例死亡和40万例职业病病例的估计值惊人地相似。显然，仍有大量工作有待完成。
