Towards an integrated approach of pedestrian behaviour and exposure.

In this paper, an integrated methodology for the analysis of pedestrian behaviour and exposure is proposed, allowing to identify and quantify the effect of pedestrian behaviour, road and traffic characteristics on pedestrian risk exposure, for each pedestrian and for populations of pedestrians. The paper builds on existing research on pedestrian exposure, namely the Routledge microscopic indicator, proposes adjustments to take into account road, traffic and human factors and extends the use of this indicator on area-wide level. Moreover, this paper uses integrated choice and latent variables (ICLV) models of pedestrian behaviour, taking into account road, traffic and human factors. Finally, a methodology is proposed for the integrated estimation of pedestrian behaviour and exposure on the basis of road, traffic and human factors. The method is tested with data from a field survey in Athens, Greece, which used pedestrian behaviour observations as well as a questionnaire on human factors of pedestrian behaviour. The data were used (i) to develop ICLV models of pedestrian behaviour and (ii) to estimate the behaviour and exposure of pedestrians for different road, traffic and behavioural scenarios. The results suggest that both pedestrian behaviour and exposure are largely defined by a small number of factors: road type, traffic volume and pedestrian risk-taking. The probability for risk-taking behaviour and the related exposure decrease in less demanding road and traffic environments. A synthesis of the results allows to enhance the understanding of the interactions between behaviour and exposure of pedestrians and to identify conditions of increased risk exposure. These conditions include principal urban arterials (where risk-taking behaviour is low but the related exposure is very high) and minor arterials (where risk-taking behaviour is more frequent, and the related exposure is still high). A "paradox" of increased risk-taking behaviour of pedestrians with low exposure is found, suggesting that these pedestrians may partly compensate in moderate traffic conditions due to their increased walking speed.