Hetem Robyn S, Fuller Andrea, Maloney Shane K, Mitchell Duncan
Brain Function Research Group; School of Physiology; University of the Witwatersrand; Faculty of Health Science; Parktown, South Africa.
Brain Function Research Group; School of Physiology; University of the Witwatersrand; Faculty of Health Science; Parktown, South Africa; School of Anatomy, Physiology, and Human Biology; University of Western Australia; Crawley, Australia.
Temperature (Austin). 2014 Jul 21;1(2):115-27. doi: 10.4161/temp.29651. eCollection 2014 Jul-Sep.
Most large terrestrial mammals, including the charismatic species so important for ecotourism, do not have the luxury of rapid micro-evolution or sufficient range shifts as strategies for adjusting to climate change. The rate of climate change is too fast for genetic adaptation to occur in mammals with longevities of decades, typical of large mammals, and landscape fragmentation and population by humans too widespread to allow spontaneous range shifts of large mammals, leaving only the expression of latent phenotypic plasticity to counter effects of climate change. The expression of phenotypic plasticity includes anatomical variation within the same species, changes in phenology, and employment of intrinsic physiological and behavioral capacity that can buffer an animal against the effects of climate change. Whether that buffer will be realized is unknown, because little is known about the efficacy of the expression of plasticity, particularly for large mammals. Future research in climate change biology requires measurement of physiological characteristics of many identified free-living individual animals for long periods, probably decades, to allow us to detect whether expression of phenotypic plasticity will be sufficient to cope with climate change.
大多数大型陆生哺乳动物，包括对生态旅游至关重要的魅力物种，都没有快速微进化或足够的范围转移这种奢侈的策略来适应气候变化。气候变化的速度太快，对于寿命长达数十年的大型哺乳动物来说，基因适应无法发生，而人类造成的景观破碎化和种群分布过于广泛，使得大型哺乳动物无法自发地进行范围转移，只能通过潜在表型可塑性的表达来应对气候变化的影响。表型可塑性的表达包括同一物种内的解剖变异、物候变化以及利用内在生理和行为能力，这些能力可以缓冲动物免受气候变化的影响。这种缓冲是否能够实现尚不清楚，因为我们对可塑性表达的功效知之甚少，尤其是对于大型哺乳动物。未来气候变化生物学的研究需要对许多确定的自由生活个体动物进行长期（可能数十年）的生理特征测量，以便我们能够检测表型可塑性是否足以应对气候变化。
