Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran.
Arch Iran Med. 2016 Sep;19(9):618-24.
Climatic factors with desired and sometimes undesired effects lead to changes in the human body, such as hypothermia, influenza, heart disease, stroke, asthma, etc. The present study investigates the role of temperature in respiratory mortality in Mashhad, Iran.
Among the respiratory mortality data, daily temperature, wind speed and relative humidity from 2004 to 2013 were used. First, Tmrt parameter was calculated through Ray Man software and the values of UTCI index were obtained using Bioklima software. Finally, the correlation between the thresholds of the above-mentioned index and temperature as well as mortality was calculated. In addition, the mortality risk ratio in all of these thresholds was calculated.
The results show that the UTCI index has changed from 32°C to 40°C in Mashhad. There is a strong and negative relationship between the maximum temperature (r = -0.90, P-value < 0.001) and mortality, and a positive relationship between the minimum temperature and mortality. In addition, the correlation between index and mortality shows that the highest positive and strong correlation is observed in negative temperature thresholds with cold stress. Thresholds with thermal stress are also inversely associated with mortality. The study of the mortality risk ratio in all thermal stress thresholds shows that in average cold stresses and a 10°C reduction, the mortality risk ratio increases by 1.36% in the significance level of 95%.
Generally, mortality increases with decreasing temperature and increasing cold stresses and the mortality risk increases by 1.36% per 10°C reduction.
具有期望和有时不期望效果的气候因素会导致人体发生变化，如体温过低、流感、心脏病、中风、哮喘等。本研究调查了伊朗马什哈德温度对呼吸死亡率的作用。
在呼吸死亡率数据中，使用了 2004 年至 2013 年的每日温度、风速和相对湿度。首先，通过 Ray Man 软件计算 Tmrt 参数，并使用 Bioklima 软件获得 UTCI 指数的值。最后，计算了上述指数的阈值与温度和死亡率之间的相关性。此外，还计算了所有这些阈值的死亡率风险比。
结果表明，UTCI 指数在马什哈德已从 32°C 变为 40°C。最高温度与死亡率之间存在强烈的负相关关系（r = -0.90，P 值<0.001），最低温度与死亡率之间存在正相关关系。此外，指数与死亡率之间的相关性表明，在具有冷应激的负温度阈值中观察到最高的正相关和强相关。具有热应激的阈值也与死亡率呈负相关。对所有热应激阈值的死亡率风险比的研究表明，在平均冷应激和 10°C 降低的情况下，死亡率风险比在 95%的显著性水平上增加 1.36%。
一般来说，死亡率随温度降低和冷应激增加而增加，每降低 10°C，死亡率风险增加 1.36%。
