Popa C C, Badiu D C, Rusu O C, Grigorean V T, Neagu S I, Strugaru C R
"Carol Davila" University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania ; Department of Surgery, 2nd General Surgery Clinic, University Emergency Hospital, Bucharest, Romania.
"Carol Davila" University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania ; Department of Surgery, General Surgery Clinic, "Bagdasar-Arseni" Clinical Emergency Hospital, Bucharest, Romania.
J Med Life. 2016 Oct-Dec;9(4):413-418.
The aim of the study was to present the biological prognostic factors of mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis. Several usual laboratory values were monitored: glucose, urea, partial pressure of oxygen, WBC count, hemoglobin, total bilirubin, and cholesterol. A statistical analysis was performed by using ROC curves and AUC interpretation. The overall mortality rate was 21.1% and was different depending on the severity of the disease. Only 2.22% of the patients with a mild disease died, as opposed to 45.63% of the patients with a severe form. All the analyses studied were significantly elevated in the deceased patients. A close correlation between blood glucose, urea, partial pressure of oxygen, WBC, hemoglobin, total bilirubin, and cholesterol and mortality was objectified by measuring the AUC, which was of 97.1%, 95.5%, 93.4%, 92.7%, 87.4%, 82.2%, and 79.0%. The usual, easy to use, fast, and cheap tests were useful in predicting mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis. Our study confirmed that the combination of several factors led to an accurate mortality prediction.
本研究的目的是呈现急性胰腺炎患者死亡的生物学预后因素。监测了几项常见的实验室指标：血糖、尿素、氧分压、白细胞计数、血红蛋白、总胆红素和胆固醇。使用ROC曲线和AUC解释进行了统计分析。总体死亡率为21.1%，且因疾病严重程度而异。轻度疾病患者中只有2.22%死亡，而重度疾病患者的死亡率为45.63%。所有研究分析在死亡患者中均显著升高。通过测量AUC发现，血糖、尿素、氧分压、白细胞、血红蛋白、总胆红素和胆固醇与死亡率之间存在密切相关性，AUC分别为97.1%、95.5%、93.4%、92.7%、87.4%、82.2%和79.0%。常用的、易于使用、快速且廉价的检测方法有助于预测急性胰腺炎患者的死亡率。我们的研究证实，多种因素的组合可实现准确的死亡率预测。
