Pugliese Emanuele, Chiarotti Guido L, Zaccaria Andrea, Pietronero Luciano
Institute for Complex Systems - CNR, Via dei Taurini 19, 00185, Rome, Italy.
Dipartimento di Fisica, Sapienza Università di Roma, P.le Aldo Moro 2, 00185, Rome, Italy.
PLoS One. 2017 Jan 10;12(1):e0168540. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0168540. eCollection 2017.
We analyze the decisive role played by the complexity of economic systems at the onset of the industrialization process of countries over the past 50 years. Our analysis of the input growth dynamics, considering a further dimension through a recently introduced measure of economic complexity, reveals that more differentiated and more complex economies face a lower barrier (in terms of GDP per capita) when starting the transition towards industrialization. As a consequence, we can extend the classical concept of a one-dimensional poverty trap, by introducing a two-dimensional poverty trap: a country will start the industrialization process if it is rich enough (as in neo-classical economic theories), complex enough (using this new dimension and laterally escaping from the poverty trap), or a linear combination of the two. This naturally leads to the proposal of a Complex Index of Relative Development (CIRD) which shows, when analyzed as a function of the growth due to input, a shape of an upside down parabola similar to that expected from the standard economic theories when considering only the GDP per capita dimension.
我们分析了过去50年各国工业化进程开始时经济系统复杂性所起的决定性作用。我们对投入增长动态进行分析，通过最近引入的经济复杂性测度进一步拓展维度，结果显示，在开始向工业化转型时，经济结构更多样化且更复杂的经济体面临的障碍（以人均GDP衡量）更低。因此，我们可以通过引入二维贫困陷阱来扩展一维贫困陷阱的经典概念：一个国家如果足够富裕（如新古典经济理论所述）、足够复杂（利用这一新维度并从贫困陷阱中横向摆脱）或两者的线性组合，就会开始工业化进程。这自然引出了相对发展复杂指数（CIRD）的提议，当将其作为投入增长的函数进行分析时，它呈现出与仅考虑人均GDP维度时标准经济理论预期相似的倒抛物线形状。
