Suppr超能文献

概率人口预测

: Probabilistic Population Projections.

作者信息

Ševčíková Hana, Raftery Adrian E

机构信息

Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington, Box 354322, Seattle, WA 98195-4322, USA.

Departments of Statistics and Sociology, University of Washington, Box 354320, Seattle, WA 98195-4320, USA.

出版信息

J Stat Softw. 2016 Dec;75. doi: 10.18637/jss.v075.i05. Epub 2016 Dec 6.

Abstract

We describe , an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age- and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as future numbers of births and deaths. It provides graphical ways of summarizing this information, including trajectory plots and various kinds of probabilistic population pyramids. An expression language is introduced which allows the user to produce the predictive distribution of a wide variety of derived population quantities, such as the median age or the old age dependency ratio. The package produces aggregated projections for sets of countries, such as UN regions or trading blocs. The methodology has been used by the United Nations to produce their most recent official population projections for all countries, published in the .

摘要

我们描述了一个用于生成所有国家概率性人口预测的R包。它使用贝叶斯分层模型生成的总生育率和预期寿命的概率性预测。它从未来年龄和性别特定人口数量、生育率和死亡率以及未来出生和死亡人数的联合后验预测分布中生成一个样本。它提供了总结这些信息的图形方式,包括轨迹图和各种概率性人口金字塔。引入了一种表达式语言,允许用户生成各种派生人口数量的预测分布,如中位数年龄或老年抚养比。该包为国家集合(如联合国区域或贸易集团)生成汇总预测。联合国已使用该方法生成其最新的所有国家官方人口预测,并发表在……中。

相似文献

1
: Probabilistic Population Projections.概率人口预测
J Stat Softw. 2016 Dec;75. doi: 10.18637/jss.v075.i05. Epub 2016 Dec 6.
5
Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty.考虑迁移不确定性的概率性人口预测。
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 Jun 7;113(23):6460-5. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1606119113. Epub 2016 May 23.

引用本文的文献

6
Probabilistic population forecasting: Short to very long-term.概率性人口预测:短期到极长期。
Int J Forecast. 2023 Jan-Mar;39(1):73-97. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.09.001. Epub 2021 Oct 7.
8
Probabilistic forecasts of international bilateral migration flows.国际双边移民流动的概率预测。
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022 Aug 30;119(35):e2203822119. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2203822119. Epub 2022 Aug 22.

本文引用的文献

4
World population stabilization unlikely this century.本世纪世界人口不太可能稳定下来。
Science. 2014 Oct 10;346(6206):234-7. doi: 10.1126/science.1257469. Epub 2014 Sep 18.
7
Reconstructing Past Populations With Uncertainty From Fragmentary Data.利用不完整数据重建具有不确定性的过去种群。
J Am Stat Assoc. 2013 Mar;108(501):96-110. doi: 10.1080/01621459.2012.737729. Epub 2013 Mar 15.
10
Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries.贝叶斯概率人口预测:所有国家通用。
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2012 Aug 28;109(35):13915-21. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1211452109. Epub 2012 Aug 20.

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍。

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索

文档翻译

学术文献翻译模型,支持多种主流文档格式。

立即体验