Ševčíková Hana, Raftery Adrian E
Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington, Box 354322, Seattle, WA 98195-4322, USA.
Departments of Statistics and Sociology, University of Washington, Box 354320, Seattle, WA 98195-4320, USA.
J Stat Softw. 2016 Dec;75. doi: 10.18637/jss.v075.i05. Epub 2016 Dec 6.
We describe , an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age- and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as future numbers of births and deaths. It provides graphical ways of summarizing this information, including trajectory plots and various kinds of probabilistic population pyramids. An expression language is introduced which allows the user to produce the predictive distribution of a wide variety of derived population quantities, such as the median age or the old age dependency ratio. The package produces aggregated projections for sets of countries, such as UN regions or trading blocs. The methodology has been used by the United Nations to produce their most recent official population projections for all countries, published in the .
我们描述了一个用于生成所有国家概率性人口预测的R包。它使用贝叶斯分层模型生成的总生育率和预期寿命的概率性预测。它从未来年龄和性别特定人口数量、生育率和死亡率以及未来出生和死亡人数的联合后验预测分布中生成一个样本。它提供了总结这些信息的图形方式，包括轨迹图和各种概率性人口金字塔。引入了一种表达式语言，允许用户生成各种派生人口数量的预测分布，如中位数年龄或老年抚养比。该包为国家集合（如联合国区域或贸易集团）生成汇总预测。联合国已使用该方法生成其最新的所有国家官方人口预测，并发表在……中。
