Zheng Hui, Yang Y Claire, Land Kenneth C
Popul Res Policy Rev. 2016 Feb;35(1):49-71. doi: 10.1007/s11113-015-9379-4. Epub 2015 Nov 19.
This paper investigates historical changes in both single-year-of-age adult mortality rates and variation of the single-year mortality rates around expected values within age intervals over the past two centuries in 15 developed countries. We apply an integrated Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort-Variance Function Regression Model to data from the Human Mortality Database. We find increasing variation of the single-year rates within broader age intervals over the life course for all countries, but the increasing variation slows down at age 90 and then increases again after age 100 for some countries; the variation significantly declined across cohorts born after the early 20th century; and the variation continuously declined over much of the last two centuries but has substantially increased since 1980. Our further analysis finds the recent increases in mortality variation are not due to increasing proportions of older adults in the population, trends in mortality rates, or disproportionate delays in deaths from degenerative and man-made diseases, but rather due to increasing variations in young and middle-age adults.
本文研究了15个发达国家在过去两个世纪中，单岁成年人死亡率的历史变化以及各年龄区间内单年死亡率围绕预期值的变化情况。我们将一个综合的分层年龄-时期-队列-方差函数回归模型应用于人类死亡率数据库的数据。我们发现，所有国家在整个生命历程中，较宽年龄区间内单年死亡率的变化都在增加，但在90岁时这种增加的速度放缓，并且对于一些国家来说，100岁之后又再次增加；20世纪初之后出生的队列中，这种变化显著下降；在过去两个世纪的大部分时间里，这种变化持续下降，但自1980年以来大幅增加。我们的进一步分析发现，近期死亡率变化的增加并非由于老年人口在总人口中的比例增加、死亡率趋势，或退行性疾病和人为疾病导致的死亡不成比例的延迟，而是由于年轻和中年成年人死亡率变化的增加。
