Wallace Geoffrey L, Haveman Robert, Wolfe Barbara
1 Department of Economics, La Follette School of Public Affairs, Institute for Research on Poverty, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA.
2 Department of Population Health Sciences, La Follette School of Public Affairs, Institute for Research on Poverty, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA.
Res Aging. 2017 Jan;39(1):222-248. doi: 10.1177/0164027516669567.
This article uses data on a sample of retirees drawn from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to examine changes in health over the retirement years and to estimate the effects of health changes in retirement on wealth. Using the framework of item response theory, we develop a novel measure of health that makes use of multiple indicators of physical health that are available in the HRS. We find that large negative shocks to the health of male retirees and their spouses are frequent in retirement and that when such shocks do occur, recovery to the preshock level of health is rare. Using a dynamic panel data model, we then estimate short- and long-run effects of changes in health on wealth. While our estimated short-run effects are modest, long-run estimates of the impact of health shocks on wealth are large, ranging from a 12% to 20% reduction in wealth by the 10th year, following a permanent one standard deviation decrease in health.
本文使用从健康与退休研究（HRS）中抽取的退休人员样本数据，来研究退休期间的健康变化，并估计退休后健康变化对财富的影响。利用项目反应理论框架，我们开发了一种新的健康衡量方法，该方法利用了HRS中可用的多个身体健康指标。我们发现，男性退休人员及其配偶的健康状况在退休后经常受到重大负面冲击，而且当这种冲击发生时，恢复到冲击前的健康水平很少见。然后，我们使用动态面板数据模型来估计健康变化对财富的短期和长期影响。虽然我们估计的短期影响不大，但健康冲击对财富影响的长期估计很大，在健康永久性下降一个标准差后，到第10年财富减少幅度在12%至20%之间。
