He Ling-Yun, Yang Sheng, Chang Dongfeng
School of Economics, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China.
Institute of Resource, Environment and Sustainable Development Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2017 Mar 1;14(3):245. doi: 10.3390/ijerph14030245.
Based on the panel data of 306 cities in China from 2002 to 2012, this paper investigates China's road transport fuel (i.e., gasoline and diesel) demand system by using the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) and the Quadratic AIDS (QUAIDS) models. The results indicate that own-priceelasticitiesfordifferentvehiclecategoriesrangefrom-1.215to-0.459(byAIDS)andfrom -1.399 to-0.369 (by QUAIDS). Then, this study estimates the air pollution emissions (CO, NOx and PM2.5) and public health damages from the road transport sector under different oil price shocks. Compared to the base year 2012, results show that a fuel price rise of 30% can avoid 1,147,270 tonnes of pollution emissions; besides, premature deaths and economic losses decrease by 16,149 cases and 13,817.953 million RMB yuan respectively; while based on the non-linear health effect model, the premature deaths and total economic losses decrease by 15,534 and 13,291.4 million RMB yuan respectively. Our study combines the fuel demand and health evaluation models and is the first attempt to address how oil price changes influence public health through the fuel demand system in China. Given its serious air pollution emission and substantial health damages, this paper provides important insights for policy makers in terms of persistent increasing in fuel consumption and the associated health and economic losses.
基于2002年至2012年中国306个城市的面板数据，本文运用几乎理想需求系统（AIDS）和二次几乎理想需求系统（QUAIDS）模型研究了中国道路运输燃料（即汽油和柴油）需求系统。结果表明，不同车辆类型的自身价格弹性范围为-1.215至-0.459（AIDS模型）以及-1.399至-0.369（QUAIDS模型）。然后，本研究估计了不同油价冲击下道路运输部门的空气污染排放（一氧化碳、氮氧化物和细颗粒物）以及公共健康损害。与2012年基准年相比，结果显示燃料价格上涨30%可避免114.727万吨污染排放；此外，过早死亡人数和经济损失分别减少16149例和1381.795亿元人民币；而基于非线性健康效应模型，过早死亡人数和总经济损失分别减少15534例和1329.14亿元人民币。我们的研究将燃料需求与健康评估模型相结合，是首次尝试探讨油价变化如何通过中国的燃料需求系统影响公众健康。鉴于其严重的空气污染排放和巨大的健康损害，本文就燃料消费持续增长及其相关的健康和经济损失为政策制定者提供了重要见解。
