Akter Rokeya, Hu Wenbiao, Naish Suchithra, Banu Shahera, Tong Shilu
School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health & Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.
Trop Med Int Health. 2017 Jun;22(6):656-669. doi: 10.1111/tmi.12868. Epub 2017 May 2.
To assess the epidemiological evidence on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission.
Following PRISMA guidelines, a detailed literature search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus. Peer-reviewed, freely available and full-text articles, considering both climate and socioecological factors in relation to dengue, published in English from January 1993 to October 2015 were included in this review.
Twenty studies have met the inclusion criteria and assessed the impact of both climatic and socioecological factors on dengue dynamics. Among those, four studies have further investigated the relative importance of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. A few studies also developed predictive models including both climatic and socioecological factors.
Due to insufficient data, methodological issues and contextual variability of the studies, it is hard to draw conclusion on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. Future research should take into account socioecological factors in combination with climate variables for a better understanding of the complex nature of dengue transmission as well as for improving the predictive capability of dengue forecasting models, to develop effective and reliable early warning systems.
评估气候变异性与社会生态因素对登革热传播的联合影响的流行病学证据。
遵循PRISMA指南，在PubMed、科学网和Scopus数据库中进行了详细的文献检索。纳入了1993年1月至2015年10月期间以英文发表的、经过同行评审、可免费获取且为全文的文章，这些文章同时考虑了与登革热相关的气候和社会生态因素。
20项研究符合纳入标准，并评估了气候和社会生态因素对登革热动态的影响。其中，4项研究进一步探讨了气候变异性和社会生态因素对登革热传播的相对重要性。一些研究还开发了包含气候和社会生态因素的预测模型。
由于研究数据不足、方法问题以及背景变异性，难以就气候变异性与社会生态因素对登革热传播的联合影响得出结论。未来的研究应将社会生态因素与气候变量结合起来考虑，以便更好地理解登革热传播的复杂性质，并提高登革热预测模型的预测能力，从而开发出有效且可靠的预警系统。
