Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong (SAR), China.
Mathematics and Science College, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, 200234, China.
Sci Rep. 2017 Mar 21;7(1):273. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-00253-1.
Zika virus (ZIKV) disease outbreaks occurred in French Polynesia in 2013-2014 and in Brazil and Colombia in 2015-2016, respectively. Using our recently developed ZIKV disease model, we simulated the reported ZIKV infection cases from French Polynesia, Colombia and the State of Bahia of Brazil. Moreover, we estimated that the infection attack rates were 78.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 63.5-86.3%) in French Polynesia which closely matches a previous serological study; 20.8% (95% CI: 1.1-50.0%) in Colombia which suggests that the attack rate was most likely less than 50%; and 32.4% (95% CI: 2.5-94.2%) in the State of Bahia in Brazil which suggests that the attack rate is unidentifiable with monthly data in Bahia. Furthermore, we found that the association of precipitation and ZIKV outbreak was more evident in Colombia than the other two places. These results are helpful for us to understand the possible evolution, to control the on-going outbreaks, to prevent the potential geographic spread, and to study the ecological and epidemiological characteristics of ZIKV.
寨卡病毒（ZIKV）疾病暴发分别于 2013-2014 年在法属波利尼西亚和 2015-2016 年在巴西和哥伦比亚发生。利用我们最近开发的寨卡病毒疾病模型，我们模拟了来自法属波利尼西亚、哥伦比亚和巴西巴伊亚州的报告寨卡病毒感染病例。此外，我们估计法属波利尼西亚的感染攻击率为 78.0%（95%置信区间（CI）：63.5-86.3%），与之前的血清学研究非常吻合；哥伦比亚的感染攻击率为 20.8%（95%CI：1.1-50.0%），表明攻击率很可能低于 50%；巴西巴伊亚州的感染攻击率为 32.4%（95%CI：2.5-94.2%），表明巴伊亚州的每月数据无法确定攻击率。此外，我们发现降水与寨卡病毒暴发的关联在哥伦比亚比在其他两个地方更为明显。这些结果有助于我们了解可能的演变、控制正在发生的暴发、预防潜在的地理传播，并研究寨卡病毒的生态和流行病学特征。
