Cheng Qijin, Chen Feng, Yip Paul S F
Hong Kong Jockey Club Centre for Suicide Research and Prevention, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR.
School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
PLoS One. 2017 Apr 12;12(4):e0175580. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0175580. eCollection 2017.
Previous studies have suggested that mass media's reports of new suicide methods will increase suicides using the same method. The same pattern seems not to apply to a conventional suicide method, unless it was used by a celebrity.
A self- and mutual- exciting process model was fitted to the data, adjusting for divorce rate, unemployment rate, and property price index. Breaking the whole period into onset, peak, and post-peak stages, the model was fitted again to examine the differences.
Comparable copycat effects were found on both CB and non-CB suicide news. The only cross-method media effects were found in the onset stage when non-CB suicide news showed suppressing effect on CB suicides. CB suicides reported a significant self-excitation effect. A higher divorce rate and lower property price index were associated with significantly more suicides incidences and more suicide news.
The emerging of CB suicide method did not substitute media coverage of non-CB suicide in HK. Media effects in this case were not limited to new suicide method or celebrity suicide. The effects were further fueled by adverse socio-economic conditions.
先前的研究表明，大众媒体对新自杀方法的报道会增加使用相同方法的自杀事件。同样的模式似乎不适用于传统自杀方法，除非该方法被名人使用。
1）研究1998年至2005年香港地区大众媒体对新自杀方法和非新自杀方法的影响，当时一种新的烧炭自杀方法在该地区蔓延。2）研究在社会经济背景下，烧炭自杀与非烧炭自杀方法在媒体报道和“吸引”自杀者方面是如何竞争的。
将自激发和互激发过程模型应用于数据，并对离婚率、失业率和房价指数进行调整。将整个时期分为起始阶段、高峰阶段和高峰后阶段，再次拟合模型以检验差异。
在烧炭自杀和非烧炭自杀新闻中发现了类似的模仿效应。唯一的跨方法媒体效应出现在起始阶段，即非烧炭自杀新闻对烧炭自杀有抑制作用。烧炭自杀报道了显著的自激发效应。较高的离婚率和较低的房价指数与更多的自杀事件和更多的自杀新闻显著相关。
烧炭自杀方法的出现并没有取代香港地区非烧炭自杀的媒体报道。在这种情况下，媒体效应不仅限于新自杀方法或名人自杀。不利的社会经济状况进一步加剧了这些效应。
