Little Paul, Stuart Beth, Smith Sue, Thompson Matthew J, Knox Kyle, van den Bruel Ann, Lown Mark, Moore Michael, Mant David
University of Southampton, Primary Care Medical Group, PCPS Unit, Aldermoor Health Centre, Southampton SO16 5ST, UK
University of Southampton, Primary Care Medical Group, PCPS Unit, Aldermoor Health Centre, Southampton SO16 5ST, UK.
BMJ. 2017 May 22;357:j2148. doi: 10.1136/bmj.j2148.
To assess the impact on adverse outcomes of different antibiotic prescribing strategies for lower respiratory tract infections in people aged 16 years or more. Prospective cohort study. UK general practice. 28 883 patients with lower respiratory tract infection; symptoms, signs, and antibiotic prescribing strategies were recorded at the index consultation. The main outcomes were reconsultation with symptoms of lower respiratory tract infection in the 30 days after the index consultation, hospital admission, or death. Multivariable analysis controlled for an extensive list of variables related to the propensity to prescribe antibiotics and for clustering by doctor. Of the 28 883 participants, 104 (0.4%) were referred to hospital for radiographic investigation or admission, or both on the day of the index consultation, or were admitted with cancer. Of the remaining 28 779, subsequent hospital admission or death occurred in 26/7332 (0.3%) after no antibiotic prescription, 156/17 628 (0.9%) after prescription for immediate antibiotics, and 14/3819 (0.4%) after a prescription for delayed antibiotics. Multivariable analysis documented no reduction in hospital admission and death after immediate antibiotics (multivariable risk ratio 1.06, 95% confidence interval 0.63 to 1.81, P=0.84) and a non-significant reduction with delayed antibiotics (0.81, 0.41 to 1.64, P=0.61). Reconsultation for new, worsening, or non-resolving symptoms was common (1443/7332 (19.7%), 4455/17 628 (25.3%), and 538/3819 (14.1%), respectively) and was significantly reduced by delayed antibiotics (multivariable risk ratio 0.64, 0.57 to 0.72, P<0.001) but not by immediate antibiotics (0.98, 0.90 to 1.07, P=0.66). Prescribing immediate antibiotics may not reduce subsequent hospital admission or death for young people and adults with uncomplicated lower respiratory tract infection, and such events are uncommon. If clinicians are considering antibiotics, a delayed prescription may be preferable since it is associated with a reduced number of reconsultations for worsening illness.
评估不同抗生素处方策略对16岁及以上人群下呼吸道感染不良结局的影响。前瞻性队列研究。英国全科医疗。28883名下呼吸道感染患者;在首次就诊时记录症状、体征及抗生素处方策略。主要结局为首次就诊后30天内出现下呼吸道感染症状的再次就诊、住院或死亡。多变量分析控制了一系列与抗生素处方倾向相关的变量以及医生聚类情况。在28883名参与者中,104人(0.4%)在首次就诊当天被转诊至医院进行影像学检查或住院,或两者皆有,或因癌症住院。在其余28779人中,未使用抗生素处方后有26/7332人(0.3%)随后住院或死亡,立即使用抗生素处方后有156/17628人(0.9%),延迟使用抗生素处方后有14/3819人(0.4%)。多变量分析表明,立即使用抗生素后住院和死亡情况未减少(多变量风险比1.06,95%置信区间0.63至1.81,P = 0.84),延迟使用抗生素后有非显著减少(0.81,0.41至1.64,P = 0.61)。因新出现、加重或未缓解症状进行的再次就诊很常见(分别为1443/7332人(19.7%)、4455/17628人(25.3%)和538/3819人(14.1%)),延迟使用抗生素可显著减少再次就诊(多变量风险比0.64,0.57至0.72,P<0.001),但立即使用抗生素无此效果(0.98,0.90至1.07,P = 0.66)。对于患有单纯性下呼吸道感染的年轻人和成年人,立即使用抗生素可能不会降低随后的住院或死亡风险,且此类事件并不常见。如果临床医生考虑使用抗生素,延迟处方可能更可取,因为它与因病情加重进行的再次就诊次数减少有关。