模拟2005年至2025年伊朗心血管疾病负担：人口结构变化的影响。

Modeling the Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases in Iran from 2005 to 2025: The Impact of Demographic Changes.

作者信息

Sadeghi Masoumeh, Haghdoost Ali Akbar, Bahrampour Abbas, Dehghani Mohsen

机构信息

Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.

Health Services Management Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.

出版信息

Iran J Public Health. 2017 Apr;46(4):506-516.

BACKGROUND

Estimating the burden of non-communicable diseases particularly cardiovascular disease (CVD) is essential for health management and policymaking. In this paper, we used a regression model to estimate the future impact of demographic changes on the burden of CVD in Iran during the next two decades.

METHODS

Disability-adjusted life years (DALY) were used to estimate the future burden of CVD in Iran. A regression model was used to estimate DALY caused by CVD in the Iranian population aged 30-100 yr, stratified by age group and sex. The predicted population of Iranians aged ≥ 30 yr was entered into the model and DALY were calculated over 2005-2025. To assess the areas of uncertainty in the model, we did sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation.

RESULTS

In the year 2005, there were 847309 DALYs caused by CVD in Iranian adults aged ≥ 30 yr. This figure will nearly be 1728836 DALYs in 2025. In other words, just because of the aging, DALY related to CVD will increase more than two-fold in 2025 compared with 2005. The burden of CVD was higher in men (443235) than in women (404235) in 2005; but in 2025, the difference will be less (867639 vs. 861319).

CONCLUSION

The burden of CVD will increase steeply in Iran over 2005-2025, mainly because of the aging population. Therefore, more attention is needed to deal with the impact of CVD in the following decades in Iran.

背景

估算非传染性疾病尤其是心血管疾病（CVD）的负担对于健康管理和政策制定至关重要。在本文中，我们使用回归模型来估算未来二十年人口结构变化对伊朗心血管疾病负担的影响。

方法

采用伤残调整生命年（DALY）来估算伊朗心血管疾病的未来负担。使用回归模型估算30至100岁伊朗人群中由心血管疾病导致的DALY，按年龄组和性别分层。将预测的30岁及以上伊朗人口输入模型，并计算2005年至2025年期间的DALY。为评估模型中的不确定性领域，我们进行了敏感性分析和蒙特卡洛模拟。

结果

2005年，30岁及以上伊朗成年人中由心血管疾病导致的DALY为847309。到2025年，这一数字将接近1728836。换句话说，仅由于人口老龄化，与心血管疾病相关的DALY在2025年将比2005年增加两倍多。2005年男性心血管疾病负担（443235）高于女性（404235）；但到2025年，差异将减小（867639对861319）。