Brandt Sylvia, Dickinson Brenton, Ghosh Rakesh, Lurmann Frederick, Perez Laura, Penfold Bryan, Wilson John, Künzli Nino, McConnell Rob
University of Massachusetts Amherst, MA, United States.
University of Massachusetts Amherst, MA, United States.
Sci Total Environ. 2017 Dec 1;601-602:391-396. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.073. Epub 2017 May 29.
Emerging evidence indicates that the near-roadway air pollution (NRAP) mixture contributes to CHD, yet few studies have evaluated the associated costs.
We integrated an assessment of NRAP-attributable CHD in Southern California with new methods to value the associated mortality and hospitalizations.
Based on population-weighted residential exposure to NRAP (traffic density, proximity to a major roadway and elemental carbon), we estimated the inflation-adjusted value of NRAP-attributable mortality and costs of hospitalizations that occurred in 2008. We also estimated anticipated costs in 2035 based on projected changes in population and in NRAP exposure associated with California's plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. For comparison, we estimated the value of CHD mortality attributable to PM less than 2.5μm in diameter (PM) in both 2008 and 2035.
The value of CHD mortality attributable to NRAP in 2008 was between $3.8 and $11.5 billion, 23% (major roadway proximity) to 68% (traffic density) of the $16.8 billion attributable to regulated regional PM. NRAP-attributable costs were projected to increase to $10.6 to $22 billion in 2035, depending on the NRAP metric. Cost of NRAP-attributable hospitalizations for CHD in 2008 was $48.6 million and was projected to increase to $51.4 million in 2035.
We developed an economic framework that can be used to estimate the benefits of regulations to improve air quality. CHD attributable to NRAP has a large economic impact that is expected to increase by 2035, largely due to an aging population. PM-attributable costs may underestimate total value of air pollution-attributable CHD.
新证据表明，道路附近空气污染（NRAP）混合物会导致冠心病，但很少有研究评估其相关成本。
我们将南加州NRAP所致冠心病的评估与评估相关死亡率和住院治疗价值的新方法相结合。
基于按人口加权的居民对NRAP（交通密度、距主要道路的距离和元素碳）的暴露情况，我们估算了经通胀调整后的2008年NRAP所致死亡率的价值以及住院治疗成本。我们还根据人口变化以及与加州减少温室气体排放计划相关的NRAP暴露预测变化，估算了2035年的预期成本。为作比较，我们估算了2008年和2035年直径小于2.5微米的颗粒物（PM）所致冠心病死亡率的价值。
2008年NRAP所致冠心病死亡率的价值在38亿至115亿美元之间，占因受监管的区域PM所致168亿美元的23%（距主要道路的距离）至68%（交通密度）。预计到2035年，NRAP所致成本将增至106亿至220亿美元，具体取决于NRAP指标。2008年NRAP所致冠心病住院治疗成本为4860万美元，预计到2035年将增至5140万美元。
我们建立了一个经济框架，可用于估算改善空气质量法规的效益。NRAP所致冠心病具有巨大的经济影响，预计到2035年还会增加，这主要是由于人口老龄化。PM所致成本可能低估了空气污染所致冠心病的总价值。
